In the first quarter of 1992, the year Bill Clinton defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush on the message “It’s the economy, stupid,” the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 4.5 percent. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that first-quarter growth was just 2.2 percent. Although many analysts are assuming President Obama will ultimately hang on to the White House this November, the dismal gross domestic product report reminds us he is running for re-election with tremendous economic headwinds. This economy might be weaker than it has been for any pos/world/ War II incumbent facing re-election.

The accompanying table details economic conditions at the comparable point in time for every incumbent president who has sought re-election since 1948, when consistent data were first collected. The growth rate announced Friday is the third-lowest for a president at this point, trailing only those under President Carter, who lost in 1980, and President Eisenhower, who was re-elected in 1956. But in 1956, even though the economy shrunk in the first quarter, unemployment was at just 4.2 percent in March and economic growth had soared in the previous year. By contrast, the current unemployment rate is 8.2 percent, the worst of any March during a re-election year.