Prior to the July 30 and 31 Democratic primary presidential debates, seven candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and failed Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke — had qualified for the more stringent September debates. Two days later, Sen. Amy Klobuchar obtained the donor count to qualify, and a week later, entrepreneur Andrew Yang became the ninth to qualify with a Monmouth University Poll of Iowa showing him with 2% support.
He’ll likely be the last to qualify.
Former Obama HUD Secretary Julián Castro seemed just as likely as Yang to qualify prior to the July debates last week, with just two more polls to go and the opportunity of a debate to boost him across the finish line. The only other candidate near the 130,000 donor requirement who seemed at all capable of acquiring the polling required to qualify for the debates was Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.
Now, neither seems likely to make the mark.
Despite Gabbard’s stellar evisceration of Harris’ abhorrent record at California’s top cop, the Hawaii congresswoman’s overall support hasn’t seemed to rise based on the first round of polling released after the debates. Her Quinnipiac and Politico national polling stagnated at 1%, and an Economist poll found her support improved by just 1% even though 10% of voters polled believe she won her debate. Only Biden, at 15%, had more people think he won.
Castro didn’t just bore at the debates, but he also blundered afterward, with his brother Joaquin Castro forcing him to defend a deliberate publication of a list of Trump donors. His national polling stagnated, and the new Monmouth poll that qualified Yang for September found that Castro’s Iowa polling fell from 2% to zero. The only other early state that Castro could possibly get a qualifying poll from is Nevada, but he’s now got only 20 days to do so.
Meanwhile, Tom Steyer is showing up well in the polls, but I doubt he can get to the required donor threshold in just 20 days.
In September 2015, 15 Republicans sparred across two debate stages in a primary that began with fewer candidates than this one. In one month, it looks like just nine Democrats will do so.
