And like that, Joe Biden has officially entered the 2020 bloodbath. Leading the pack by ten points, the former vice president faces fire from every angle. He’s a relic of the Obama era and one with working class and Rust Belt appeal. Naturally, the knives are out for Biden.
Fellow septuagenarian Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and the socialist camp have already begun to frame Biden as an echo of an antiquated brand of politics. The rest of the Left are actively pushing for a shinier, more intersectional candidate. Biden’s a gaffe machine with two failed presidential bids in his past.
Despite all these supposed negatives, you’d be an idiot to write off the power of his base.
Looking just at the raw polling, Biden is in a league of his own. His Real Clear Politics average hasn’t dipped below 26%. Bernie hasn’t been able to come closer than 6.8 percentage points to him and has spent most of the race around ten points down.
And that was before Biden even announced.
Three out of four Democrats find Biden favorable, more than any other candidate in the race. Just 15% find him unfavorable, compared to 22% of Democrats who find Bernie unfavorable.
Even across the aisle, Biden is faring well. The majority of all Americans still find Biden favorable. By contrast, at this stage in her campaign, only around four in ten Americans found Hillary Clinton likable enough.
Biden’s base is not only solid, but also composed of vital demographics.
The media recently went all in on pushing Biden’s behavior with women as problematic. From the first “allegation” to now, Biden’s RCP average dropped by just 0.3 percentage points. In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden takes a quarter of the vote, with Bernie earning just 15%. 63% of all Americans polled had a favorable opinion of Biden as opposed to just 44% who find President Trump favorable.
But more important than how many support Biden is who supports him. With that, Uncle Joe’s hit jackpot.
Biden consistently earns high levels of support from older and African Americans, both key demographics for winning the Democratic primary. Biden has the highest favorability among non-White primary voters, and four in ten African Americans say they would vote for him. In addition, one-third of adults older than 55 back Biden, a key demographic in voter turnout.
Biden may very well botch this. Every day will be a battle going forward, seeing as he’s the single candidate whose demise would benefit the entire field the most. But at this stage, I wouldn’t bet against Uncle Joe.
