Jeb Bush, who on Tuesday announced that he has “decided to actively explore the possibility of running for president,” last ran for political office in 2002. (The race was for a second term as governor of Florida, and Bush won.) If Bush runs in 2016, that will be a 14-year gap between his last run for office and his attempt to win the White House.
That’s a long time. In fact, Bush’s 14-year gap is bigger than any general-election presidential candidate in recent memory.
When Mitt Romney ran for president in 2012, he had run for the Republican nomination four years earlier and for governor of Massachusetts six years before that. When Barack Obama ran for president in 2008, he had run for the Senate four years earlier. When John McCain ran against Obama in 2008, he had also run for Senate four years earlier. When John Kerry ran for president in 2004, he had run for Senate two years earlier.
When George W. Bush ran for president in 2000, he had run for governor of Texas two years earlier. When Al Gore ran against Bush, he had run for vice-president four years earlier. When Bob Dole ran for president in 1996, he had run for the Senate four years earlier. When Bill Clinton ran for president in 1992, he had run for governor of Arkansas two years earlier.
When George H.W. Bush ran for president in 1988, he had run for vice-president four years earlier. When Michael Dukakis ran against Bush in ’88, Dukakis had run for governor of Massachusetts two years earlier. When Walter Mondale ran for president in 1984, he had run for vice-president four years earlier. When Ronald Reagan ran for president in 1980, he had run for the Republican nomination four years earlier and had been re-elected as governor of California six years before that. Going back even farther, Richard Nixon, when he ran for president in 1968, had run for governor of California six years earlier and for president two years before that.
All that makes Jeb Bush’s 14-year gap seem really, really big. In fact, it could be rivaled, although not matched, only by Hillary Clinton’s eight-year gap between her presidential run in 2008 and another try in 2016.
Campaigns need fresh candidates. Talk to political consultants and they’ll tell you that sitting out even one electoral cycle can not only make a candidate rusty but can also make him or her unfamiliar with the sometimes overwhelming ways in which campaigns change over the course of four years. Jeb Bush might be able to overcome those challenges. But it probably won’t be easy.
This story was first published at 12:30 a.m.
