Iran’s escalation of hostility in the Gulf of Oman is a dangerous situation. Targeting civilian oil and chemical tankers, Iran is threatening free passage of a critical global trade route.
President Trump’s response must be measured so as to defuse, rather than further escalate, the tension. But he may be tempted to avoid any confrontation for fear of causing oil prices to spike. Worrying too much over short-term oil prices would be a mistake.
After all, there’s little doubt as to why Iran is targeting energy supplies: to stir up Trump’s fears over the global economy about 17 months ahead of his reelection. The hard-liners in control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are aware of the ongoing U.S. trade tensions with China and its impact on U.S. economic confidence.
Iran is also aware of Trump’s interest in a strong domestic economy that will help secure his reelection. And Iran will also appraise, like other nations, that Trump’s personal interests motivate his policy decisions in an outsize manner. This gives the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, belief that attacks spike oil prices upward. The price of crude increased in the immediate aftermath of the most recent tanker attacks this week. As long as the U.S. does not react, Iran will continue with its oil-focused aggression. They hope it will nudge Trump to make concessions.
This is not to say Trump should fail to think about what Iran is doing: Higher global oil prices, after all, support Iranian oil export revenues and benefit American adversaries such as Russia. But Trump’s focus must remain tight. His Iran policy is well designed toward the pursuit of an improved nuclear agreement. The immense strain that U.S. sanctions pressure has imposed on Iran is fostering frictions between the more moderate bloc around President Hassan Rouhani and the hard-liner bloc. With time, Iran will be forced to the negotiating table.
Trump should make clear to Iran that its escalation will have no positive dividend for its interests. While the president is rightly cautious about using military force to constrain Iranian aggression, he must not allow Iranian aggression to stand. New sanctions should be introduced against Iranian naval and shipping interests. But preventive measures will also be necessary. Trump should consider working with allies to establish declared safe zones in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf. These zones would be off-limits to Iranian vessels, apart from narrowly defined transit crossing points, and thus more ably protected against threats. If Iranian vessels enter these zones, they should be sunk.
Time is on the president’s side here. His Iran policy serves American interests and the preservation of our international order. But Trump must not allow a fear of short-term strife and oil price hikes to interfere with America’s long-term strategic needs.
