As the sun continues to rise and set, more people are using the same skies to get around. The number of daily TSA-screened passengers has risen in recent days to its highest since mid-March, an encouraging sign for an industry maimed like so many others.
There’s little telling at what rate demand will increase or if it will indeed continue to increase for now, but airlines have already begun making operational decisions to accommodate expectations of social distancing on their flights. If they are expected or required to keep them in place until a vaccine arrives, the airlines will start lobbying Congress for more subsidies.
Delta Air Lines announced on Wednesday that it would maintain its cabin-specific capacity limitations and continue making middle seats unavailable for passengers to select themselves through Sept. 30. United Airlines will allow passengers to elect to take another flight if theirs is at least 70% full, but it hasn’t committed to any cap. Southwest Airlines made a commitment similar to Delta but has not specified a capacity limitation.
Airline executives have so far recognized a symbiosis between demand and passenger assurance related to safety and the coronavirus. If passengers think it’s safe enough to fly without risking infection, passengers will come back, they suppose. Limiting capacity is one way to offer that assurance.
The pledges aren’t sacrifices yet because overall demand is low enough that airlines aren’t taking on new losses by making capacity commitments. They are already losing money. And for now, the limitations will only be put into practice for select markets that have occasionally seen normal, pre-virus demand. The commitments might become sacrifices, however, if demand begins to surge between now and a vaccine.
If demand does increase enough in that time, the airlines will have to make a decision to do away with limitations, to amend them to a larger percentage, or to renew them at 60%-70%. To renew them in an environment of surging demand would lead to a revenue loss of some measure.
So far, limiting capacity has been voluntary. But in Washington, Democratic leaders of two House committees hinted at support for establishing social distancing standards for airlines. Republicans may not go for it, but if the government imposed such rules, airlines would undoubtedly go to Congress for more money to subsidize losses. In the CARES Act, Congress already deemed aviation particularly worthy of aid for its unique role in commerce, and airlines know that.
A vaccine may very well be the only thing that results in a real increase in demand. Once a vaccine becomes available, this all likely becomes moot (if we assume that a vaccine both removes expectations of limiting capacity and offers people enough assurance to begin flying at pre-virus rates), but it is worth consideration.
Update: An earlier version of this article reflected Delta’s decision to limit capacity through June. It has been updated to include details about extending its policies through Sept. 30, which were announced Wednesday.
