President Trump should pick up the phone to Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, and pressure him to exert influence on the Sudanese military.
The military massacred 35 Sudanese civilians on Monday. Unless it is restrained, more will die in the coming days.
The UAE has a unique ability to influence Sudan as its dominant export partner. Impoverished and reliant on its export markets for foreign capital generation, the Sudanese military needs the UAE in order to maintain its power and patronage networks. But the UAE also needs, and wants, to keep Trump onside. After all, Trump has shown that he is a partner to the Emiratis. He is the primary reason that the UAE’s nemesis, revolutionary Iran, has been weakened and more effectively deterred against regional aggression. Recognizing U.S. interests and moral concerns, Trump should use his UAE influence in Sudan.
The moral need is clear. In the bloodshed now ripping onto the streets, we’re seeing the Sudanese military’s desire to destroy democracy. Abandoning tense negotiations with a civilian opposition which recently overthrew President Omar al-Bashir, the military wants to ensure that it remains the dominant power in Sudanese politics. And if its ambitions are unchecked, the military will ensure that Sudan remains authoritarian and kleptocratic.
I get that some Americans will read this and say, why, beyond morality, does it concern us?
But the answer is simple: China, our foremost geopolitical foe, is moving to dominate Africa. A Sudanese military dictatorship will be much more susceptible to Chinese influence-buying because it will be durable (not facing elections) and its power will be highly centralized. That’s why Trump should pressure the UAE to get the Sudanese military to return to make concessions to the opposition. Trump should be clear: If the UAE fails to act, he will regard it as a betrayal.
