Now that the blizzard of CYA leaks from anonymous McCain campaign staffers has slowed, it is possible to assess Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in a dispassionate manner. First, some facts, beginning with the positive affect of her selection as the Republican vice-presidential nominee on John McCain’s 2008 presidential effort. As The Wall Street Journal’s Blake Dvorak pointed out earlier this week, exit polling showed that 60 percent of voters said Palin was a factor in their decision, with 56 percent of them opting for McCain. On the other hand, 60 percent said she wasn’t qualified to be president. Normally, vice-presidential candidates barely make the needle move either way, but Palin’s selection undoubtedly injected an enthusiasm that McCain’s campaign desperately needed, fueling a three-point mid-September lead over Democrat Barack Obama just as the Wall Street economic crisis broke.
And that brings us to 2008’s pivotal political moment, McCain’s “suspension” of his campaign and disastrous return to Washington for two days of ineffectual attempts to play a lead role in resolving the economic crisis. Instead, McCain ended up Me-Too-ing Obama’s cautious support of the Bush-Paulson-Pelosi $700 billion Wall Street bailout, while adding another $300 billion mortgage aid proposal. With no real difference between the two presidential candidates on the key issue of the campaign’s closing weeks, most voters opted for making history by electing America’s first black chief executive. Absent Palin — plus a late boost from Joe the Plumber — McCain likely would have otherwise been relegated to Alf Landon status among GOP losers.
So Palin emerges from campaign 2008 not unlike Ronald Reagan in 1964. His electrifying national address delivered only a week before the Goldwater debacle launched him on an extraordinary political career, one in which he was routinely dismissed as a lightweight who didn’t understand complex national problems. Yet, Palin has advantages Reagan lacked in 1964, including several years as a governor and 13 brutal weeks on the national campaign trail. She clearly connects with Middle America like nobody else in a party that desperately needs new stars. Still, if Palin hopes to advance on the national stage, she must demonstrate mastery of a wide range of domestic and foreign issues on which she hasn’t yet been tested. There will also be long hours accumulating political IOUs on the chicken dinner circuit, and sooner or later there will be return engagements with the Katie Courics of the national media. It’s not an easy road to be sure but a run for national office never is.
