Turnout: Will the Republican surge and Democratic slump continue?

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Here’s something to watch for as the returns from the South Carolina Republican primary and the Nevada Democratic caucuses come in Saturday: turnout. There will be plenty of suspense, and quite possibly surprises about who wins and, in South Carolina, comes in second, third and fourth. Polls give us some idea of what to expect, but primary and caucus results can often differ substantially from how people actually vote.

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