President Hassan Rouhani of Iran makes a terrible mistake in refusing to sit down with President Trump. With French nudging, Trump on Monday suggested his openness to meeting Rouhani to address tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.
Rouhani on Tuesday blew those prospects out of the water.
He would entertain no talks, Rouhani asserted, unless the U.S. first began withdrawing sanctions on Tehran. “Without this step, the lock will not be unlocked,” Rouhani said, adding, “We’re not after weapons of mass destruction, neither atomic nor chemical, and not because of your frown and admonition, but because of our beliefs and morals and [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s theological ruling against nuclear weapons].”
Rouhani’s denial of interest in nuclear weapons is a lie. His deception is proven by Iran’s extensive and ongoing ballistic missile research, by its retention of nuclear weapons designs, and by Iran’s refusal to submit to snap inspections protocols. Those concerns demand Trump’s effort to reach a new and improved nuclear agreement. They also inform why Trump is right to maintain sanctions on Iran in order to force it back to the negotiating table.
But Rouhani deludes himself if he thinks the U.S. will be the first to blink on sanctions. It’s a delusion with heavy costs. After all, the Iranian economy is now locked in a death spiral of inflation, mass youth unemployment (a problem where approximately 40% of the population is under 25 years old), and shortages of both materials and goods. For Rouhani to ignore this reality is to risk even greater political unrest.
Some say that by imposing harsh sanctions on Iran, Trump has forced Rouhani’s more-moderate faction into cooperation with the Revolutionary Guards-aligned hard-liners. This, they say, is why Rouhani won’t play ball and Trump needs to back off.
I disagree.
It’s true that the hard-liner faction detests any serious compromise with America. It’s also true that Khamenei’s sympathies are with the hard-liners. Still, the supreme leader has given Rouhani wide latitude to make difficult concessions in the past because he recognizes that the Islamic revolutionary project is existentially challenged by economic malaise and ensuing political fury.
Were Rouhani serious about finding a way out of this crisis, he could ask Khamenei’s approval to meet Trump at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in September. Instead, he’s choosing to be an idiot.