Below the Sanders lead, don’t overlook this poll result

The same NBC/Marist poll that showed Bernie Sanders with a big lead over Hillary Clinton also shows Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R, leading Gov. Maggie Hassan, D, by 3 points in a hypothetical Senate matchup, 48 to 45 percent. Ayotte’s lead has shrunk since the same poll was taken in July, showing her at 50 percent and up 8 points. The change could signal a tightening of what is still a hypothetical race, although in fact all of the results are within the margin of error from last time.

It’s an early poll, you might say, so why does it matter? The issue here is that Hassan is deciding whether to run for Senate. She might choose instead to run for re-election. So far, the polls have consistently shown that the latter is the easier path for her — at best, a Senate race is a toss-up. But this result has to be a lot more attractive for Hassan than the 8-point deficit she faced before.

Hassan is probably the only candidate who could give Ayotte much trouble for re-election to another six-year term. Senate Republicans would love to see her stay as governor, keeping this seat out of contention, and it would be another huge Democratic recruiting failure. The way things are shaping up, Democrats are going to have a very hard time retaking the Senate without Ayotte’s seat.

Facing a tough fight already to keep hold of Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada, and having apparently lost the opportunity to put North Carolina into contention, they might have to win all or nearly all of their other six GOP target seats to succeed, depending on the presidential outcome.

To have a winnable race in New Hampshire means Senate Democrats would have a little more wiggle room, making their task that much easier. That’s why Reid’s unofficial super PAC is putting a lot of early money in to target Ayotte and nudge Hassan toward the decision he’d like her to make.