When, later today, Russian President Vladimir Putin wins another landslide electoral victory, he will rule as Russia’s president until at least 2024. At that point he will have served as president for a total of 20 years.
This is not like Saddam Hussein’s landslide elections in Iraq. Whatever the democratic failings of the modern Russian state, Putin actually does command the support of the Russian people. This is not a pleasant fact for the West.
The question, then, is why the antipathy toward democratic norms? If 80 percent of the country approves of Putin’s performance, why does Putin feel the need to crack down on critics?
The reason is insecurity. Specifically, he fears being exposed as the kleptocrat he is. Putin is deeply afraid of journalists and activists who shine a light on his doings.
The most obvious example is Alexei Navalny, a journalist who frequently breaks stories on the lavish lifestyles of Russian government officials on supposedly low salaries. Flying drones over forested mansions and borrowing photographs from expensive prostitutes, Navalny torments the elites who surround Putin and dominate Russian political and economic life.
Navalny’s most notable recent report alleges that a Russian deputy prime minister enjoyed the hospitality and harem of oligarch Oleg Deripaska in 2016.
Unsurprisingly, this amused neither Putin nor Deripaska.
Navalny and his supporters are consistently harassed by Putin’s FSB security agency. Putin fears Navalny’s videos and his confident social media presence are earning traction with Russians of all ages, and thus will spur a groundswell for real accountability.
That’s why Navalny was banned from today’s election, and it’s why Putin will not even utter his name.
Speaking with Megyn Kelly of NBC News last weekend, Putin showed a rare break in his otherwise stoic temperament when asked by Kelly why he wouldn’t allow Navalny to stand in the election. Without naming Navalny, Putin angrily stated that the activist didn’t deserve it.
Putin’s greatest aggravation here might be that Navalny is already so popular and widely known outside of Russia. This public profile makes it difficult for Putin to entertain the idea of murdering Navalny as he has other less well-known political activists such as Boris Nemtsov.
The Trump administration, particularly the State Department, soon to be under the leadership of Mike Pompeo, could perhaps exploit this insecurity, in part by amplifying the voices of Russians who work for accountability.
If you spend part of your Sunday watching electoral results from Moscow, remember that the names not standing against Putin are the greatest domestic threat the former KGB man has faced for many years.
