DES MOINES — This weekend a large part of the 2016 GOP presidential field — contenders, maybe-contenders, and the longest of longshots — is coming here to Iowa for a gathering of conservatives organized by Rep. Steve King and Citizens United.
Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, John Bolton, and Donald Trump will all appear at the “Freedom Summit” on Saturday. Stars of campaigns past — like Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich — will be there, too.
Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz, among others, are the usual suspects of social conservative get-togethers. But organizers were surprised — happily so — when Christie accepted the invitation. He’s not a conservative darling, to say the least, but he had a successful visit to Iowa with Gov. Terry Branstad last summer and has built a good relationship with King. Now, showing up means a lot.
“I believe Christie earns a ton of respect for being here,” says Chuck Laudner, an influential GOP activist who is close to King and supported Santorum in 2012. “The one thing the base of the party wants is someone who isn’t afraid of the debate.”
“He is a man courageous enough to believe in his own conservatism that he is going to come and speak directly to conservatives in Iowa,” says David Bossie, president of Citizens United. “And so I tip my hat to him for doing that.”
Not so much for Jeb Bush, also not a conservative darling, who won’t be here. Several weeks ago, Bush told organizers he could not attend due to a “scheduling conflict.” That’s the sort of thing that raises eyebrows among some attendees — Mr. Moderate doesn’t want to face conservatives! — but Steve King himself is not questioning Bush’s explanation. “Jeb Bush’s history of straightforwardness informs me to take him at his word,” says King. “Keeping his prior commitment for January 24th is keeping his word.”
Still, the crowd will definitely notice that Bush isn’t here. “If he has a message that he thinks he can sell as a conservative to conservatives in Iowa — like his father and his brother did — he would be coming regardless of any of those issues, scheduling conflict or not,” says Bossie. “I wish he was coming. I’m sorry he’s not.”
Mitt Romney, who topped an Iowa GOP poll recently, won’t be here, either. Organizers wanted him to come even before he stunned the political world by telling donors he’s seriously considering a 2016 run. The Romney team thought about it but ultimately declined.
Romney’s reason, and Bush’s too, might have little to do with any moderate-conservative friction. They’re both major figures, both assumed to be frontrunners, and neither might want to be part of a cattle call, at least at this early date. That’s for lesser candidates.
Besides Christie, the candidate who gains the most by showing up is Scott Walker. It’s hard to overstate how hopeful many conservatives are about the Wisconsin governor. They greatly admire his taking on the public sector unions, plus his victories in three elections in a blue state. What they don’t know is whether he would actually be a good presidential candidate. “People know of his successes and the battles he’s been in, but they don’t know him,” says Bossie. They’ll get a look on Saturday.
A few other candidates — Rand Paul and Marco Rubio — won’t be there, also citing conflicts. But even with the absences, the gathering will underscore how astonishingly wide open the 2016 Republican race is at this moment. Yes, Romney appears to be ahead for now, but that’s widely thought to be at least partially the product of name recognition. In any event, the field is closely bunched.
Saturday will give somebody a chance to start separating from the pack. “It will reveal not only which ones are comfortable speaking to the Republican base, but which ones have the ability to electrify an audience that is looking for a champion,” says state GOP activist Jamie Johnson. “This is an event for speakers to swing for the fences, not bunt or hope for a base on ball. The crowd wants to see home runs.”
