Mike Braun is a successful businessman, a relative political newcomer, and, until Tuesday night, mostly an afterthought to the political class in D.C.
That changed Tuesday. He just wiped the floor with two other Republican candidates who had a dozen years in Congress between them.
Braun won 41 percent of the vote when the Associated Press called the race right before 9 p.m. while Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita battled for a meaningless second place with about 30 points each.
How did Braun win a chance to challenge Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country? He saw a populist opportunity and he exploited ugly establishment infighting.
The race was nasty from the beginning, as Messer and Rokita bludgeoned each other during the early months. And when Messer and Rokita were going for each other’s throats, Braun knocked their heads together.
In what might be one of the most effective ads of 2018, the outsider took on both, simultaneously highlighting how uncanny their similarities are and dubbing them “the swamp brothers.” The two don’t just look alike. They vote the same way, Braun argued, labeling them individually “Luke the liberal” and “Todd the Fraud.” Blasted over airwaves repeatedly across the state, that 30-second spot was brutal, catchy, and effective.
What’s more, that name calling came off as lighthearted compared to the knife fight between Messer and Rokita.
That pair slashed at each other to their own detriment, slowing just enough to create a big gap for Braun. Almost identical, Messer and Rokita might have been able to win the race minus the other. Together, they brought in more than 285,000 votes to Braun’s 200,000. If one dropped out or if one stopped attacking the other, a different result seems probable.
Braun has plenty of liabilities, namely the fact that he registered and voted Democrat until recently. But by the time Messer and Rokita started attacking the businessman in earnest, it was too late. Now the question becomes whether Braun can defeat Donnelly head-to-head, whether a former Democrat can beat a centrist Democrat?
Donnelly doesn’t have a name that lends itself to Trumpian alteration like Rokita and Messer. He also doesn’t have their identical voting habits. The incumbent has been careful to build a centrist brand instead, touting one of the most bipartisan records in the Senate and notably voting to confirm Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch.
Come November, Donnelly will be able to count on an energized liberal resistance. Braun will have to prove he can win a race that his competition doesn’t lose.
