As it moves to assume direct control over the government in Catalonia, the Spanish government must proceed cautiously.
It must do so not simply in the deeper service of Spanish unity, but so as to reduce the risk of a terrorist uprising.
Don’t laugh: The threat of a violent campaign cannot be discounted. All the ingredients for an insurgent uprising in Catalonia are now present.
Given the overwhelming 92 percent majority which voted for independence and the ensuing violent police crackdown that followed, it’s safe to say the Catalan public are angry and resentful. And in Spain’s decision to take control of local government authorities, some Catalans may feel that they are being oppressed.
Now consider a group from Catalonia’s not so distant history.
Between 1978 and 1992, the Terra Lliure (Free Earth) Catalonian terrorist group waged a low-level insurgency against the Spanish government. While Terra Lliure never caused as much harm as its Basque counterpart, ETA, and eventually renounced violence as its leaders were imprisoned or killed, it did undergo periods of factionalism as some continued the fight.
Still, the history of insurgencies tells us that nothing should ever be taken for granted. As in Northern Ireland today, where self-perceiving liberation movements find a union of causes, leaders and means to reinstigate their activities, they will do so.
All this means that while Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government seems to be aware of the risks here, it must proceed carefully. Whatever Spain’s need to maintain its territorial and political integrity, any miscalculation or appearance of aggressive authoritarianism will make a violent uprising more likely.
And if that happens, everyone will lose.
