On Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un suspended a liaison office with South Korea. Kim knows that South Korean President Moon Jae-in wants peace at all costs, so he’s demanding more concessions in return for re-opening that office.
It’s a clever gambit that fits naturally with Kim’s and China’s overarching interest in splitting South Korea from the U.S. They believe that such a split would dilute the U.S. military presence in South Korea and the surrounding area, and increase the chance that South Korea demanded Trump not launch military strikes on North Korea from its soil.
But Kim also knows that the U.S. and South Korea have very different interests when it comes to negotiating with him. Trump wants to end North Korea’s nuclear and long range ballistic missile programs in return for his U.S.-supported economic opening to the world. South Korea, however, simply wants peace at all costs. Thus, Kim wants to push Seoul out of the U.S. negotiating orbit and toward an agreement in which Pyongyang receives abundant aid and the South suspends military activity. All South Korea would get in return is a look at the big smile on Kim’s face as a result.
[Also read: No sign North Korea denuclearizing, says Joint Chiefs chairman]
Trump must respond firmly to North Korea’s latest action here. He should make clear to Moon that he will not reward North Korea for its intimidation. And he should remind Moon that if necessary, the U.S. will use force against North Korea’s missile program, with or without South Korean support.
That clarification is crucial because Trump’s recent diplomatic actions have been ill-judged. As I noted late last year, a new North Korean missile test was likely due to Trump’s unwillingness to offer sanctions relief absent major Kim’s own major concessions. While Trump is right to refuse concessions with reciprocity and right to sideline humanitarian concerns, he was wrong to encourage North Korean brinkmanship by gifting Kim free victories such as the suspension of major U.S.-South Korean military exercises. Trump wrongly assumed that the diplomatic status quo was stable.
Trump must now clarify that he will protect America (a tweet to that effect would be good). But he should also use original thinking to get the diplomatic needle moving. He should, for example, consider offering a holding facility for North Korean nuclear weapons in return for North Korea’s ballistic missile disarmament.
