With a fourth qualifying poll finding his support at 3% or greater, entrepreneur Andrew Yang just became the eighth, and likely the final, Democratic presidential candidate to secure a place on the debate stage come November.
The Democratic National Committee raised the bar from the September and upcoming October debates so that Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Julián Castro, and Tulsi Gabbard will likely disappear between this month’s debate and next barring a huge surge in support.
Beto and Klobuchar both have just one qualifying poll, but O’Rourke has since cratered, and Klobuchar cannot seem to crack 2% anywhere. Despite viral moments from both, neither Gabbard nor Castro have had a single qualifying poll. The math just doesn’t add up for any realistic path for them to make it to November, given their name recognition thus far.
Although the DNC decided to forgo the undercard debate model employed by the GOP in 2016, the field has diminished much more rapidly. Eight candidates appeared in the prime-time debate in November 2015, with another four still appearing in the undercard debate. The relationship between polling and publicity granted by the debates always presents a chicken-and-egg question, but there’s no doubt that the November debate stage surely reflects public support coalescing around just a handful of candidates.
For months, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders have split about two-thirds of Democratic voters’ support, with the former gaining at the expense of the malady-ridden latter. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has plateaued at 6%, keeping him safely in fourth place as Kamala Harris crumbles and Andrew Yang slowly ascends to meet her.
Every other candidate — including Beto, the chosen one — has plummeted into statistical irrelevance.
For once, this month’s debate won’t have much at stake for those hanging onto the edges because they’re done. None of the four candidates on the chopping block have visible support bases in the key early states that could’ve saved them for November, and their national polling has tanked. Instead, all eyes will be back on the top three, because if an ailing Bernie falters and a gaffe-prone Biden fumbles, Warren is the nominee. Yang, whose growing and enthusiastic base of support is wildly underrepresented in the media, may benefit if he can cut through the noise, but the media has seen what the rest of the second tier has to offer. So far, they’re just not buying it.
It’s Biden and Bernie’s last stand, not anyone else’s. Because the rest of them are simply campaigning for a Cabinet position — or in the case of Beto, for their dignity.
