Report from Iowa: Why Cruz will crush the caucuses

This conference, two months from Iowa’s caucuses, provided a good opportunity to assess the candidates’ chances in the crucial first-in-the-nation contests, to be held February 1.

Here’s our analysis of the top candidates, in descending order of likelihood they could win or finish high in the caucuses:

Ted Cruz: Cruz has to be considered the front-runner in Iowa.

1. Cruz has been steadily climbing in Iowa polls for months. Cruz leads significantly in the latest Iowa poll after another recent poll showed him effectively tied with Trump.
2. None of his rivals can match his stage presence. He’s almost an evangelical megachurch preacher when before a large crowd. In small crowds, he’s compelling and creates a feeling of intimacy. Iowa Republicans — the undecided and the Cruz devotees alike — walk away impressed with Cruz’s intellect and passion.
3. Cruz also seems to love campaigning — in contrast to Jeb Bush, who hates it, and Rubio and Christie who clearly see it as a job. After a shooting-range event near Des Moines, Cruz stayed for nearly an hour to pose for pictures and greet supporters.
4. He was the undisputed star of the show at the FreedomWorks summit in Cedar Rapids. His name evoked the loudest cheers, and his speech was best or tied for best (with Carly Fiorina).
5. Interviews with voters in Iowa showed that grass roots conservatives love Cruz mostly because “he does what he says he’ll do.” This sentiment reflects decades of frustration conservatives have had with the GOP — frustration that finally found voice in the 2010 Tea Party, and which has found its champion in Cruz. Relatedly, conservatives see Cruz as a fighter with spine.
6. Cruz doesn’t talk very much about religion, but his Christianity is central to his appeal. Many of the female voters I spoke with said they supported Cruz, and they cited his Christianity as their first reason.
7. If the Republican voters aligning with Trump in the polls do indeed start falling away, Cruz is the most natural place for them to land. Cruz hints towards Trump’s hawkishness on immigration rhetoric, and he captures the base’s disdain for establishment politics.
8. Rarely has a politician come by who can tap into the conservative emotions, frustrations, and hopes. Cruz will probably win Iowa barring the unexpected.

Marco Rubio: Rubio is not prominent in the mindset of many Iowans yet.

1. Rubio inspires those who come and see him speak, but he doesn’t yet have a hook with which to draw in caucus-goers. Trump is the bomb-thrower, Cruz is the preacher, and Carson is the novelty. Rubio is just a Republican Senator.
2. Rubio’s hope has always been to be the pragmatic, electable conservative — more electable than Cruz and more conservative than Jeb. This is very possible for him, given his high favorability ratings in Iowa: 70 percent of Hawkeye Republicans see Rubio favorably compared to 18 percent unfavorable.
3. Rubio doesn’t have to win Iowa. If he finishes second behind Cruz, he possibly sets up a one-on-one with his fellow Senator that would be even odds.

Donald Trump: Trump probably won’t win Iowa.

1. The brash billionaire is dropping in the polls. But he’s still near the top, and his events continue to draw huge crowds. Neither phenomena prove he can win the caucuses.
2. Telling a pollster you support Trump is often more of an expression of defiance than an indication of voter intent. And as pollsters’ likely-voter screens are honed over the coming weeks, expect Trump to fall further in Iowa polls.
3. Already, Trump’s lead had shrunk to within the margin of error in the latest Quinnipiac poll, before he fell behind in the Monmouth poll.
4. Trump, in the Quinnipiac survey, was second to Jeb Bush on the question of candidates whom Republican caucus goers say they will not support. Many Iowa Republicans say they are glad Trump is running, because he says things that need saying, but they can’t take him seriously — and they are certain he would lose to Hillary.
5. Trump supporters are very likely not to show up on caucus day. One recent poll showed Trump’s support came disproportionately from Republicans who have never attended a caucus before. That’s exactly the profile of voter who will not show up this year on caucus day. Remember: The caucus takes up your entire evening. It is a much more involved process than simply voting in a primary.
6. There’s no evidence that Trump has an experienced Iowa caucus day operation, and he hasn’t tapped into any established networks in the state.
7. Trump’s strong CNN poll on Friday should not be considered reliable — it was a national poll (those are nearly useless this close to Iowa and New Hampshire), of only about 400 registered voters, and the poll didn’t screen for likely voters. Worse, pollsters seemed to prime respondents by asking five questions about illegal immigration immediately before asking for candidate preference.
8. Expect Trump’s lead in Iowa polls to be gone by January at the latest.
9. The remaining question would be whether he can finish second or third and eat up a big chunk of the vote, knocking a Bush, Rubio, or Christie down to embarrassingly low finish.

Chris Christie: Of all the low-polling candidates, Chris Christie is the best potential sleeper in the race.

1. Christie doesn’t have the fire of Cruz, but in many ways he is the most impressive speaker of the field. Business-minded Republicans have an affinity for Christie. Some say he’s the type of guy they would hire as a CEO.
2. It’s unsurprising then that Christie has strong support in the Iowa GOP establishment. Because the governor and other statewide officials haven’t endorsed, the highest-ranking Des Moines Republican to have endorsed is House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, who’s backing Christie. Also, the most powerful platoon of Iowa businessmen, led by ag-subsidy champion Bruce Rastetter, is fully behind Christie. (In fact, the businessmen tried to recruit Christie to run four years ago.)
3. His current support in Iowa is negligible, but there is reason to think he could surge. Moderate, pragmatic, and establishment Republicans will need to go somewhere in the caucuses. Rubio seems like a likely place, but Christie could certainly swoop many up. Recall that Mitt Romney basically tied for first place in Iowa in 2012
4. The question is this: can the Iowa GOP business establishment provide material help to Christie? Caucuses are about turnout and thus organization plus grassroots enthusiasm. On those scores, Cruz will probably win. But if the old dogs of Iowa politics can put together an operation for Christie, he could finish a close second or third.

Jeb Bush: Jeb is nowhere in the Iowa polls.

1. Jeb is showing up in 5^th or 6^th place in Iowa polls.
2. If he finishes behind Rubio in Iowa and New Hampshire, it will be a hard to explain why the party establishment should favor him over Rubio. This is especially true because many of the weaknesses that put him behind Rubio in Iowa caucuses will make him weaker than Rubio in a general: he’s not as compelling, his last name is a drag, and he doesn’t seem to want to run for President.
3. Jeb, by far, had the highest negative rating in the recent Quinnipiac poll of Iowa voters: 54 percent unfavorable. That’s 19 points worse than Trump. Voters who say Jeb is their least favorite cite his immigration positions and their Bush fatigue.
4. Self-described liberal Republicans are Bush’s best demographic in Iowa — he gets 13 percent of them. But even there, he is in fourth place, behind Trump, Carson, and (most importantly) Rubio.

Carly Fiorina: Fiorina makes a decent case that she would be the best nominee. She just isn’t getting traction.

1. Every time Fiorina speaks at a GOP cattle call — in Iowa, in another state, in the televised debates — she wins over new fans. Conservatives and moderates alike are impressed with her and intrigued.
2. This attraction hasn’t turned into support yet. She’s at 3 and 4 percent in polls, slightly down from her mini-surge earlier in the fall. Some voters may not take her seriously because they don’t think she has a chance. She may be caught in that cruel Catch-22 of politics, where she would be doing better if she were doing better.
3. That trap is escapable: Obama was that candidate in 2008, and Santorum was in 2012.
4. Conservatives believe Fiorina’s line that she could neuter Clinton in debates. They also like her executive experience. She comes across as intelligent, and her speeches seem more focused than anyone else’s besides Christie and Cruz.

Ben Carson: Carson is on a clear path to flaming out.

1. Carson has entered the “friend zone,” conservative voters gush about his intelligence and integrity, but they are moving away from the idea of caucusing for him.
2. Every Carson supporter I spoke with in Iowa instantly gave me a second name of a candidate they supported — mostly Rand Paul or Ted Cruz. In other words, they kind of like him, and that’s about as deep as his support goes.
3. Iowa polls show him on a straight downward trajectory — he’s in a distant fourth in the Monmouth survey.
4. There’s no evidence he has any ground game. The only chance he has would be a quiet, heretofore invisible network of social conservatives — such as the network that drove Huckabee to victory in Iowa in 2008. But groups like that could just as easily go for Cruz, Rick Santorum, or Huckabee again.
5. Expect Carson to fade to an asterisk by February 1.

Rand Paul: Paul may not last until the caucuses.

1. Rand Paul has an enthusiastic base among young libertarian-minded voters, many of whom would probably have no attachment to the GOP otherwise. But the polls give him little chance in Iowa.
2. Quinnipiac’s poll puts Paul at 5 percent in Iowa, exactly where he was a month ago. Monmouth has him at 4 percent. Other pollsters consistently put him at 2 or 3 percent. This is a far drop from his consistent double digits back in the Spring.
3. A caveat: If there’s any candidate for whom polling will be inaccurate, in either direction, it’s Paul. So much of his support is young people, which makes them both more difficult to poll and less reliable as caucus-goers.
4. Still, it’s hard to see a path to victory or even a top-three finish in Iowa. Outside the narrow band of Paulistas in the state, Paul’s base would be the liberty-minded Republicans. For that group, Ted Cruz, ascendant in the polls and in public attention, seems to be the top choice.
5. If Paul is to do well in Iowa or New Hampshire, he needs to win voters away from Cruz. Tellingly, he’s not trying. When asked in Cedar Rapids about Cruz, Paul responded “I’m more concerned with Marco Rubio.”
6. Much of Paul’s rhetoric makes him sound less like a contender for the nomination and more like a message candidate — analogous to the Gary Bauers of yesteryear. Paul’s message is the libertarian one on national security. “If you want to give up all of your privacy,” he said in Iowa, “I’m not your guy — I’m the wrong candidate. But I think there needs to be somebody in the race who does want to defend the 4th Amendment.”

7. Two questions follow: First: Is there still any appetite for dovishness and libertarianism as fears of ISIS grow? Can Paul convince Cruz or some other viable candidate to oppose Rubio’s hawkishness?

   Second: Will Paul drop out before Iowa or the day after Iowa?

Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.