For years, immigration restrictionists have scoffed when politicians have told them there’s no way to deport all 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States. With Trump’s presidency kicking up the enforcement in its first month, we’re going to get a chance to test the theory.
That’s not to say that these initial raids last week are an attempt to deport everyone. In fact, Immigration and Customs Enforcement went only after convicted criminals and serial immigration offenders, making the raids a lot less controversial than Trump’s travel ban. Immigration law gives the president quite a free hand in this regard, it’s just that the feds typically look the other way rather than enforce it strictly.
ICE detained approximately 700 illegal immigrants in last week’s raids. In reality, many of them can probably try to resist deportation at least briefly in immigration court. But let’s assume, arguendo, that DHS succeeds in deporting every single one of them by the end of the week. Not only that, but let’s assume that the administration manages similar results every week for the next four years. Not only that, but let’s assume for every illegal immigrant who is deported, two others leave voluntarily out of concern that they might be swept up, too.
Do the math, and that comes to about 146,000 deportations and another 291,000 self-deportations, for a grand total of just 437,000. And again, that’s based on what seem like generous assumptions. If the focus stays on criminals, that could prevent a lot of crimes, but it’s hard to imagine a number like that putting much upward pressure on wages for unskilled workers.
Perhaps this week won’t be typical (one week is a pretty small sample size). Presumably, Trump will “deport” millions more right after they are apprehended at the border, just as Obama’s administration did. Depending on how you want to define it, those maybe should or should not count as “deportations.” But with respect to those who are already in the U.S. illegally, even a sustained enforcement effort, assuming unlimited resources and no logjams in the courts, won’t even get you to 5 percent of the estimated undocumented population currently in the U.S.
Politico reports that three-quarters of those caught in last week’s raids had been convicted of serious non-immigration-related crimes, and the rest had re-entered the U.S. after being removed. The fears that critics are expressing about this are, for now, theoretical. Trump’s executive order on criminal aliens was written to target even those charged with offenses and not convicted — or perhaps not even charged with an offense. The phrase in the order — “committed acts that constitute a chargeable offense” — could apply to anyone who have lied on some sort of government application, for immigration status, welfare benefits, or anything else.
Trump ran on a platform of immigration enforcement, and specifically targeting criminal aliens. If he keeps that up and builds his wall, it might make immigration reform and even (gasp!) some form of amnesty more politically palatable for everyone down the road, whether he signs it or his successor.
But now matter what Trump does, it isn’t going to result in the millions of deportations that some of his biggest fans expect. The politicians have been telling the truth when they say you can’t deport everyone, and that some kind of reform that allows many illegal immigrants to stay is going to be required.
