DES MOINES, Iowa — The Donald Trump who appeared onstage at Drake University Thursday night — just two miles from the Republican presidential debate he was boycotting — was a different Donald Trump from the man who stars in rowdy rallies on the campaign trail.
The Trump at Drake’s Sheslow Auditorium said not a word about the polls that are his ongoing obsession. (Actually, that’s not entirely true — he mentioned the polls, but without the sheer numerical intensity he usually displays.)
Trump also shared the stage with others — not just with Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who came to the event after the GOP undercard debate, but also with John Wayne Walding, a retired Green Beret who lost a leg in Afghanistan, and with Diamond and Silk, a pair of North Carolina sisters who make pro-Trump YouTube videos and bill themselves as “African-American women … voicing their opinions about media bias, political babble and repetitive political tactics …”
Finally, Trump didn’t call anybody stupid — that is, he dialed back the rhetoric that marks the usual Trump rally performance. In his remarks, Trump focused mostly on veterans and announced that he had, so far, raised $6 million for veterans’ causes, mostly from a few big contributions from Trump friends, including $1 million from himself.
In other words, Trump promised a different sort of event, and that’s what took place at Drake.
What did not play out on the stage was the fact that the veterans event was the biggest gamble of Trump’s campaign so far. The Republican National Committee, in its infinite wisdom, decided to hold just one debate in Iowa before the caucuses. Other than Thursday night, Iowans had no chance to see the Republican field on an Iowa debate stage. (There were three Iowa debates before the 2012 caucuses.) So in the only debate held in Iowa, one held virtually on the eve of voting, with everything on the line, Trump skips? And over a feud with Fox News? It was a huge risk.
If he wins the Iowa caucuses on Monday, people will say, “Trump stuck it to ’em — and he won.” And if Trump loses the caucuses, people will say, “What in the world was he thinking?”
In the hours before the debate, Trump was, as intended, the center of attention. At the Iowa Event Center, where the debate was held, there was intense speculation about Trump’s next move. Would he finish his veterans event and then come over to the event center to hold court in the post-debate spin room? Would he go before his veterans audience early and ask the crowd, “What do you think? Should I go to the debate?” and then head over to the debate for a grand, WWE-style entrance? Plenty of newspeople (myself included) were actually discussing such things.
The Fox News team that conducted the debate was prepared for any possibility. After it was all over, Megyn Kelly, the target of Trump’s objections, displayed two sets of papers. One contained her questions for the debate should Trump appear, the other contained questions for a Trump-less debate. She was ready to go either way, right up to the last minute.
Trump and Fox representatives spoke throughout the day. Trump said someone at Fox apologized. A Fox statement contained no such apology. But by Thursday afternoon, it didn’t matter. By that time, Trump had already organized the veterans event, and the campaign said 4,000 people had RSVP’d. Indeed, a long line stretched outside Sheslow Auditorium, which holds 775 people; most didn’t get into the arena. Was Trump going to make some last-minute deal to attend the debate and tell all those people to never mind? That wasn’t going to happen; by Thursday morning, things were pretty much set in stone.
Trump fans waiting outside in the dark, freezing weather were happy with his decision. “I think it’s awesome,” said Kim Polder, of West Des Moines, as she approached the line. “I don’t think he needs to go [to the debate]. I think everybody already knows him and knows how he is, and his platform. And a fundraiser for the veterans? What an awesome idea.”
“He was probably playing some games, but then when he heard Fox News’ statement, he thought, ‘I don’t need that,'” said Billie Goff, of Johnston. “I think it might work to his advantage, because he was just going to get pounded from all sides anyway.”
“I think it’s great,” said Teresa van Loon of Ankeny. “I think he stood up for himself. And I think he’s doing a great thing by raising money for the veterans instead of raising money for Fox News.”
After the debate, pollster Frank Luntz interviewed an Iowa focus group with a different point of view. When Luntz asked whether Trump should have taken part in the debate, all hands were raised.
“I believed that he owed it to the people of Iowa to come in and make his closing arguments,” said one man, “and all of a sudden this became about him.”
“The election is too important to play games with,” added a woman, “and I feel like it was a game on his part.”
So who won? We’ll know more Monday night. If his move turns off Iowa Republicans still trying to decide who to support, Trump will lose his gamble.
On the other hand, maybe Kim Polder is right that “everybody already knows him.” Trump didn’t have a lot to gain by taking the debate stage Thursday, and plenty to lose as trailing candidates, desperate to make a mark and move up in the last days before voting, took shots at him.
So the bottom line is, nobody knows what will happen. At the debate venue, not long before I headed over to the Trump event, I ran into Iowa’s longtime Republican Gov. Terry Branstad. I noted that he had been remarkably silent on the Trump candidacy. Branstad suggested that was because he, Branstad, doesn’t know any more than anyone else.
“He’s run a very unconventional campaign,” Branstad said of Trump. “I thought he would fade early, and he hasn’t. So I’m reserving comment.”
