“Do you think your state would be better off or worse off if it left the United States and became an independent country?”
That question, asked of 1,672 adults in the latest Yahoo!/YouGov poll, is certainly provocative. So are the three others that accompany it: “Would you be better off personally” if your state seceded, do you “favor or oppose” your state seceding, and would you support a blue state-red state split of the U.S.
It’s a captivating topic. People have imagined and visually portrayed secession, especially the type that involves a modern-day American political divorce between two perhaps incompatible visions. New England, for example, could go its own way, as it actually once threatened to — the result would be both politically and geographically plausible. The West Coast states could also find their own path or link up with British Columbia or Mexico.
And, of course, 11 of the Southern states already seceded once.
But as it happens, people are not that into secession nowadays. The results of this poll evince a much less divided nation than you might expect. In spite of some of the headlines, and perhaps in spite of my own expectations, people in every political category and age group shrug or even wince at the idea of secession. There are marginal differences between groups, but it cannot be viewed as a popular idea with anyone.
First, only 18% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 16% of independents believe that their own state would benefit from seceding. And the percentage living under unitary Republican rule (19%) who believe this is identical to the percentage living under unitary Democratic rule (19%). In case you wonder what role Dobbs is playing in all this, the difference between supporters and opponents of legal abortion is also negligible (17% versus 23%).
Only 14% of 2020 Biden voters and 26% of 2020 Trump voters believe this. “Trump fans” may be slightly more likely to think their states would benefit from seceding, but the difference only just barely rises above the level of significance in a subsample of just 500 respondents.
Among even smaller subsamples, people who watch Fox News (25%) are slightly more enthusiastic (“less worried” might actually be more accurate) about their states’ prospects given secession than CNN (15%) or MSNBC (17%) viewers.
The results for the question about being “personally” better off largely mirror these, with few significant differences, which is about what you’d expect.
As for who actually wants to secede, it’s just a slightly more exaggerated version of the same: 12% of Biden voters, 21% of Trump voters, 18% of CNN viewers, 23% of Fox News viewers, 14% of Democrats, 21% of Republicans. In this case, Trump voters (58% against to 21% in favor) are broadly reflective of the larger pool of respondents (58% against to 17% in favor), which includes both Biden voters (73% against) and nonvoters. The greatest variation from group to group is probably with the number who say they are “not sure.” Voters over age 65 are most strongly opposed to secession (74%), whereas millennials (age 30-44) are the least likely to say they oppose it flat-out (45%) and the most likely to be unsure (35%).
Finally, Trump voters become sightly more amenable to the idea of secession (28% in favor) if it is described as a split between “blue states” run by Democrats and “red states” run by Republicans. But that’s as large a number as you’ll find. It is substantially but only marginally greater than the 17% of Biden voters who feel the same way — and nowadays, you certainly hear a lot of those sentiments on the Left.
Finally, Democrats (42%), Biden voters (48%), and MSNBC viewers (47%) are the most likely to report that they would consider leaving the U.S. over politics. So it should come as no surprise when you hear them threaten a move to Canada.
