John Kerry came closer to becoming president than Mitt Romney did. Kerry lost the 2004 election with 251 electoral votes to incumbent George W. Bush’s 286. If one state — Ohio — had gone for Kerry instead of Bush, the Democrat would have been president. In 2012, Romney lost with 206 electoral votes to incumbent Barack Obama’s 332. No single state could have turned the election for Romney.
It’s little remembered now, but as the 2008 election approached, Kerry gave serious thought to running again. In 2006, Kerry found himself back in Iowa and New Hampshire, laying the groundwork for a second campaign. Even when polls of Democrats found him behind Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Al Gore — at that time, Obama wasn’t even on many lists — Kerry still pronounced himself “very encouraged” as he contemplated a return race.
But even as Kerry planned a second campaign, Democrats were moving on. “There was a shift inside the party,” recalls Democratic strategist Donna Brazile. “People were excited about the prospects of Hillary … and the activist base of the party had already begun to groom other candidates for the future, one of them Barack Obama.”
Kerry was a throwback, and the party wasn’t interested in throwbacks. In January 2007, discouraged by the reaction his tentative campaign had received, Kerry announced he would not seek the presidency again. “He was in effect bowing to a Democratic Party that was clearly unreceptive and that had turned its attention to new candidates, in particular Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York,” the New York Times reported. “Many Democrats had said they expected Mr. Kerry would ultimately decide not to run after assessing how much strength he had in his party.”
Fortunately for Kerry, Democrats won control of the Senate in 2006, setting him up for the chairmanship of the Small Business Committee, and, two years later, the Foreign Relations Committee. It was “another calling” for the former party standard-bearer, Brazile remembers.
There has been no other calling for the Republican Party’s 2012 presidential candidate. Mitt Romney has been essentially retired since the campaign, but by all accounts has kept his hand in things, staying in contact with advisers and donors and keeping up with national and international issues. Meanwhile, as other GOP 2016 candidates struggled to gain traction, Romney has gotten much better feedback from the polls than Kerry did. Although the most recent poll is a month old, surveys that include Romney have shown him leading rival Jeb Bush and the rest of the Republican field.
But significant parts of the Republican Party, like Democrats in 2008, have moved on. “Romney rerun falls flat with Republican lawmakers,” reports the Hill. “Even some of his past supporters are skeptical of his ability to run for president again,” reports the Boston Globe. “Say it ain’t so, Mitt!” pleads 2012 Romney supporter and influential blogger John Hinderaker.
It is so, apparently. Romney has been encouraged by donors, former aides and other supporters to the point that he told at least one Republican that he will “almost certainly” run again, according to the Washington Post.
It will be a daunting task. In 2004, Kerry lost by 3,012,166 votes, according to the final Federal Election Commission total. In 2012, Romney lost by 4,982,296 votes. Even though there was talk of as many as four million “missing” voters who stayed away from the polls, they wouldn’t have been enough to save Romney. If he were the Republican nominee in 2016, Romney would need every single one of them and more.
And then there is the electoral map, and all those states that didn’t vote for Romney. Back in 2008, the previous nominee who came within one state of beating a sitting president surveyed the situation and decided not to try again. Today, the previous nominee who lost in a virtual electoral landslide appears ready for another run.
