I‘m skeptical of North Korea’s apparent openness to serious peace negotiations.
President Trump, on the other hand, seems excited. Tweeting on Tuesday morning, the president had the following to say.
Possible progress being made in talks with North Korea. For the first time in many years, a serious effort is being made by all parties concerned. The World is watching and waiting! May be false hope, but the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 6, 2018
Don’t get me wrong, I want peace as much as anyone. But the North Koreans are almost certainly playing for time here. Kim Jong Un’s new amenability to talks, after months of obstinacy, suggests that the North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile program is very near to completion. This is feasible considering that the last remaining development elements were very likely centered around a re-entry-survivable warhead vehicle and terminal stage targeting capabilities.
Considering Trump’s unpredictable behavior as best evidenced by his tariffs announcement last week, Kim may have decided to sit down for talks so as to run out the last couple of months before his nuclear ICBM capability comes online. He may believe that this dangle of compromise is the best way to avoid new sanctions or military action before he reaches credible ICBM competency.
After all, once Kim has that ICBM capability, the strategic initiative will shift very firmly in his favor. Why? Because at that point, any U.S. military action would risk nuclear retaliation against a U.S. city.
Still, as unreliable as it is, Trump must take Kim at his word here and attempt a diplomatic breakthrough. But he should focus on immediately testing Kim’s seriousness. To that end, Trump should agree to talks beginning this week but should seek a faith-building agreement within 72 hours of their commencement. This agreement might, for example, involve a U.S. and South Korean undertaking to suspend military exercises in return for a North Korean agreement to allow International Atomic Energy Agency snap inspections of suspected ballistic missile facilities. Trump should demand the inspectors be granted access within one week of any preliminary agreement.
At that point, we would be able to see whether the North Koreans are indeed serious: whether, in specific terms, they allow inspectors to engage in immediate “snap” inspections on IAEA request of access to a specific site. The IAEA team should then report back within two weeks on the level of cooperation it has received.
This approach would mean that within 4 weeks of starting talks, the U.S. would already have a good understanding of Kim’s seriousness in terms of pursuing a lasting settlement. Absent that seriousness; which is the most likely outcome, the U.S. could immediately sanction Chinese and Russian financial institutions facilitating business with Pyongyang and begin snap inspections of vessels breaching the UN-authorized embargo on North Korea. Doing so would show all other actors involved that the U.S. has lost patience and is preparing to use military force.
Ultimately, the key here is for Trump to pursue this opportunity with a verification-dependent and time sensitive strategy. That’s the only way a good deal can be reached.
