The assassination Monday of the Russian ambassador to Turkey is a horror and a tragedy, but please stop comparing it to the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which sparked World War I. The two killings are quite different in their significance, and world’s posture right now is not much like the one that plunged the nations of Europe into war after Ferdinand’s killing.
Ambassador Andrei Karlov was shot and killed at an art exhibit in Ankara Monday by an off-duty police officer, who reportedly shouted, “Do not forget Aleppo!” The Turkish gunman was taken out quickly by responding law enforcement officials.
Russia, which has labeled the assassination a “terror attack,” has been a key player in assisting Syrian President Bashar Assad to retake Aleppo from rebel forces.
As news of the assassination broke in the West, members of the press were quick to liken the incident to the death of Franz Ferdinand, and many in media hinted strongly that Karlov’s death could very well lead to the start of a third World War.
“Here’s hoping Andrei Karlov isn’t the 21st century’s Franz Ferdinand,” said the Atlantic’s Julia Ioffe.
Iftikhar Firdous of the Express Tribune asked, “Did the world just have its Archduke Ferdinand Moment?”
“People forget that the thing about the assassination of the archduke was that it didn’t seem like that big a deal at the time,” said freelance journalist Jonathan M. Katz. “But the other thing to remember is that WWI could have been stopped a dozen times after the archduke was assasinated [sic]. Nothing’s inevitable.”
— Jonathan M. Katz (@KatzOnEarth) December 19, 2016
And it goes on and on like that for quite awhile.
However, aside from the fact that both events involved firearms, there really isn’t much sense comparing the two.
For starters, there isn’t the sort of tension right now between Turkey and Russia that existed in Europe during the months that lead up to WWI. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.
Michael Koplow, policy director of the Israel Policy Forum, explained Monday why comparing Karlov to Franz Ferdinand is flawed.
“Despite the imagery of a foreign dignitary being assassinated in such a high profile way, we aren’t about to have WWIII,” he wrote. “The incentives are all lined up for Turkey to continue bandwagoning with Russia and make this an opportunity to create even closer ties.”
He added, “Turkey has just come off a period of strained ties with Russia, and it did not serve them well, to put it mildly. If this results in anything but joint statements about need to fight terrorism together, hunt down extremists, etc. I’ll be surprised.”
Drawing comparisons between Karlov and Ferdinand may be too cute to resist, but media really should fight the urge.
Of course 2016 comes to a close with Archduke Ferdinand trending on Twitter
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) December 19, 2016
