At the last G-7 summit in June, President Joe Biden stated that climate change was the top threat facing national security.
Biden’s attitude is broadly shared by world leaders.
This month, Russia released its new National Security Strategy. It included a very interesting addition: climate change. The U.S. Department of Defense has also announced plans to release a climate strategy within the next few weeks.
Climate change is not, by itself, the fiercest threat facing America. Instead, climate change is what the military refers to as a “threat multiplier” — it makes every other threat more dangerous. Climate change not only threatens irreversible harm to the Earth through rising sea levels and increasing temperatures. It also jeopardizes food security and water availability.
Climate change will dramatically change weather patterns throughout the world. The Middle East used to be some of the most arable land in the world, but poor agricultural practices and climate change have heavily damaged this potential. Impaired access to food leads to civil unrest, as highlighted in the lead-up to the Syrian civil war.
As conflicts grow abroad, there will be a greater risk of conflict with geopolitical adversaries. Food security loss will be gradual. But that does not mean it will be any less devastating. Similarly, water security will become a greater issue around the world. Droughts will become more severe. Rising sea levels threaten U.S. military installations. The so-called “weaponization of water” will heighten civil unrest and interstate conflict.
Power outages will leave the entire country vulnerable. Studies show that roughly a quarter of grid failures were caused by extreme weather. Climate change stretches a very thin budget even thinner, leading to a greater risk of failed national security risk response systems due to lack of funding.
Consider another issue: how melting ice in the Arctic will open new trade routes.
Who will control these routes? Russia, the U.S., and China are forcing their way into this conversation. Climate change will exacerbate preexisting diplomatic issues and create new ones. Natural disasters will cause large-scale migrations, increasing stress on national borders.
These crises are inevitable.
There are, however, mitigation solutions. We must reduce carbon emissions to net-zero in the next couple of decades. But we need pragmatic solutions alongside simple mandates to cut emissions. We need many more renewable energy sources such as wind, nuclear, and solar. But we must also develop cleaner natural gas. Supporting the development of renewable and cleaner energy sources is vital not only for America but also for others throughout the world.
The alternative is to entertain a world of rising chaos.
Ryen Reid is a master’s candidate at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh, and an intern with the Conservation Coalition. He is focused on Security and Intelligence Studies with an emphasis on the international political economy.
