At the end of perhaps the most disastrous week of his first term, President Trump scored an unexpected but potentially big win. The United States, Trump announced on Friday, reached a partial trade deal with China, sending stocks soaring amid rare hopes that the seemingly aimless trade war would end for good.
While the details of the deal appeared sound enough, there was just one obstacle in the way: The deal still has to be committed in writing.
Even when working opposite a country as duplicitous as the Chinese, the lack of a written deal wouldn’t pose too much of a problem for a normal American president. But Trump is no ordinary president. If the last 72 hours serve as a warning, Trump needs to stop talking about the deal or risk blowing it up entirely.
Trump’s showboating on Twitter started innocuously enough — “the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country” — but he quickly did what he does as he begins to run his mouth: He mangled the truth.
….I agreed not to increase Tariffs from 25% to 30% on October 15th. They will remain at 25%. The relationship with China is very good. We will finish out the large Phase One part of the deal, then head directly into Phase Two. The Phase One Deal can be finalized & signed soon!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 13, 2019
CHINA HAS ALREADY BEGUN AGRICULTURAL PURCHASES FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS & RANCHERS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 13, 2019
It will not shock you to learn that China has absolutely not begun increasing American purchases. Not a full 24 hours after Trump’s tirade, American media announced that Beijing wants another round of trade talks, and that’s before the “deal” is committed in writing.
S&P 500 futures trade near session lows as China seeks more talks before “phase one” trade deal. pic.twitter.com/lWYisO9zdi
— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint) October 14, 2019
From Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin:
NEW: Sec. Mnuchin outlines next steps in US-China trade talks –>
1. Principal-level call next week
2. Deputies will meet between now and Chile
3. Mnuchin, Lighthizer, Liu meet in Chile before leaders
4. Trump, Xi meet to finalize deal.
— Kayla Tausche (@kaylatausche) October 14, 2019
WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday that an additional round of tariffs on Chinese imports will likely be imposed if a trade deal with China has not been reached by [Dec 15], but added that he expected the agreement to go through
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 14, 2019
All in all, Trump has a whopping four weeks and four pivotal steps at minimum to go before getting a deal. In that time, Trump is perfectly capable of sabotaging the deal, especially in light of domestic political tensions in China. Trump’s boasts and untruths could make it harder for Beijing to go along with this deal. China has bore the brunt of the trade war, with its economic growth rate slowing to its lowest in decades, but Xi Jinping knows Trump faces unfavorable election odds in barely a year. All he has to do is wait out 2020 if Trump really gets under his skin.
Trump, once again, could be his own worst enemy.
