Millions of Americans were still Elizabeth Warren supporters just before she dropped out. The latest national polls showed her somewhere between 10% and 19%. She had 7% in the latest poll of Michigan, which votes next week. And on Super Tuesday, when her hopes were nearly extinguished, nearly 1.7 million voters pulled the lever for her.
So in the remaining states, where will Warren’s erstwhile supporters go?
Don’t count on them all, or even mostly, jumping to Bernie.
Yes, Warren and Sanders were the two champions of socialized health insurance (“Medicare for all”). Yes, Warren and Sanders were the two most vociferous critics of big business and lobbyists. And yes, generally, Warren’s policy proposals were nearly as left as Bernie’s.
But that doesn’t mean Warren supporters were closer to Bernie than to Joe Biden. Voters aren’t really that ideological or policy focused.
The best way to understand Warren’s base is to think of it as the Connected Class. Left-wing, college-educated, white people were her strongest demographic. There’s a reason most reporters, most academics, and so many activists backed her, while so few actual voters did: She was a candidate of a small but powerful, elite demographic group.
Warren, while finishing third in Iowa, finished first among Iowans whose highest educational level was college. She finished second to Pete Buttigieg among those who went to grad school.
She overperformed among Iowans earning six figures and among suburban voters.
Back when she was the front-runner last October, it was because she was dominating the college-graduate vote. She dropped to the second tier of candidates when Buttigieg took a big chunk of that college-educated vote from her.
Matthew Yglesias at Vox presents similar data: “Even at a time when Warren had, in its estimate, fallen to fourth place in national polling, she was first with white college graduates and first with Democrats who have advanced degrees.”
Warren also overperformed among women. There were thousands of female Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton, desperately wanted a female nominee, and were totally wedded to Warren.
This is a big part of her base: the Connected Class and boomer women.
And so whom do you think the elites, even the left-leaning ones that loved Warren, will support, between Bernie and Biden? A big chunk will go to Biden. In fact, for the white women voters now left without a woman candidate, there’s little reason to pick Bernie over Biden.
