The moment Trump became president, the fate of Sen. Joe Donnelly was sealed. The Indiana Democrat had to know he would live or die on the steps of the United States Supreme Court.
Eventually, Donnelly tried to split the judicial baby. And it didn’t work. ABC projects that Republican challenger Mike Braun has defeated the incumbent in the first GOP Senate pickup of the night.
The senator voted for Justice Neil Gorsuch the first time around winning marginal points with the Right and angering whatever residual Left exists in a state swept by the last two Republican presidential nominees. It was a good move for a centrist Democrat in a deep-red state.
This let Donnelly duck and cover and say reasonable things about Gorsuch like “I believe that he is a qualified jurist who will base his decisions on his understanding of the law and is well-respected among his peers.” Indiana progressives were annoyed and Indiana conservatives, maybe a little intrigued. It seemed possible that this whole moderate Democrat thing might still work in the Midwest.
If Trump didn’t get a second Supreme Court nominee, this would have been a less exciting race. But, as if on cue, Anthony Kennedy decided to retire. Donnelly tried to run the same centrist play — just in the other direction.
The senator said, after stressing the amount of deliberation that went into his decision, that he couldn’t vote for Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Donnelly wouldn’t weigh into the allegations of sexual assault lodged against the nominee. He just wouldn’t vote for the nominee because Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Senate Republicans had “refused to allow that FBI investigation.”
That excuse held water until the moment Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., decided to give Donnelly exactly what he claimed he wanted. Flake called for a one week delay of the vote and Donnelly decided to come up with a new excuse to vote against Kavanaugh.
After the FBI investigated the justice and the assorted allegations, Donnelly had to shift his explanation to opposing the justice’s politics. “Joe also has serious concerns about Judge Kavanaugh’s temperament and impartiality,” a Senate aide told Seung Min Kim of the Washington Post. “He’s ready to work with President Trump on a new nominee, but he remains opposed to this one.”
And there went the centrism that Donnelly had guarded so jealously. The senator all but admitted he had moved the goal post. He wasn’t opposing the nominee because of unproven allegations. It didn’t look like he cared about the allegations at all. It looked like Donnelly was just looking for an excuse to say no, an opportunity to re-ingratiate himself to the progressives he alienated by voting for Gorsuch.
There were benefits like the fundraising that Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., did for Donnelly and the rally that former President Barack Obama held for him two days before Election Day in Gary, Ind. But it was clear. With his opposition to Kavanaugh, Donnelly had cast his political lot toward the left.
An Oct. 31st NBC/Marist poll of Indiana showed that it cost him. Forty percent of likely voters reported they were more likely to vote for the candidate who supported Kavanaugh versus the 33 percent of respondents who preferred a candidate who voted against the conservative judge.
Donnelly tried, and Donnelly failed to win as a moderate in Indiana. A strong economy and a red geography played against him. The veneer of his centrism wore off. Donnelly tripped and broke his political neck on the steps of the Supreme Court.
