Russian President Vladimir Putin may not have lost his passion for using unconventional weapons to kill perceived enemies in NATO member states. I say that, because it is likely that the Russian state recently attempted to assassinate at least one and possibly three Czech mayors with biological weapons.
This case raises numerous questions. Here’s what we know so far.
Prague Mayor Zdenek Hrib and two other mayors, Pavel Novotny and Ondrej Kolar, have been under Czech police protection for more than a month now. Each person had attracted Russian ire for their various involvements in removing a Prague statue memorializing Soviet World War II Marshal Ivan Konev and renaming a square near the Russian embassy in memory of Boris Nemtsov, a dissident who was assassinated in Moscow in February 2015 (likely on Putin’s orders). Russia has publicly criticized these moves, but Putin’s fury apparently runs deeper below the surface.
After all, acting on a tip-off by a foreign intelligence ally, the Czech BIS domestic security-intelligence service monitored the March 14 arrival of one Andrei Konchakov at Prague’s airport. A number of Czech officials believe that Konchakov was in possession of a bioweapon, likely ricin, and possibly also the shellfish-derived neurotoxin, saxitoxin. Both toxins have been employed by Russian intelligence services for many years (a KGB assassination using ricin sparked a major spy scandal during the Cold War).
Who is Konchakov, you ask?
According to Czech press reports, he is an officer for Russia’s Federal Security Service. I am led to believe Konchakov is a Russian intelligence officer either for the FSB or the SVR foreign intelligence service. But we do know that Konchakov has headed up a Russian cultural center in Prague since 2017. That might seem to make him an unlikely bioweapons courier, but Russia’s SVR and FSB intelligence services often run operations out of their cultural centers. These posts allow them to recruit sources with less visibility than with operations run out of the embassy. Konchakov has spent most of the past two years meeting Czech students who have studied Russian — and likely offering them gifts and trips to Russia to aid in recruiting them as Russian agents who can then infiltrate Czech, European Union, or NATO structures.
But in 2019, Konchakov was diplomatically accredited by Moscow. That was likely given in order to allow him to conduct increasingly risky intelligence activity without the threat of being arrested. And Konchakov’s role in this saga would certainly fall under the category or risky activity. It seems that Konchakov was the courier to deliver the weapon from Moscow to a kill-team in Prague.
Another question follows. Why on Earth Russia would take such a big risk in a nation which tolerates many Russian intelligence officers and is less-than-hostile to Moscow’s critical interests?
Russian assassination teams involving biological or chemical weapons are closely monitored by Western intelligence services. Following the Novichok-nerve agent assassination attempt on Sergei Skripal in 2018, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service/MI6 has further prioritized its already significant focus on Russian operations in this area. While Russian assassination teams now go extremely dark (not communicating with other Russian officials or engaging in regular communications) prior to an attack, if caught, Putin and his top officers know the diplomatic and economic consequences may be significant. Following the Skripal plot, more than 150 Russian intelligence officers were expelled from various embassies.
That doesn’t mean Putin wouldn’t have rolled the dice here.
The Czech Republic’s (Czechoslovakian) history as a former Soviet outpost makes it especially vulnerable to Russian aggression. And as with the 2004 dioxin assassination plot against former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Russia has a track record of conducting vicious attacks on high-level figures. The very possibility of Russia carrying out an attack such as this one serves Putin’s interests by cultivating foreign fear and, he hopes, molding foreign leaders to more conciliatory positions.
The Konev statue removal also played perfectly to Putin’s narrative. After all, the Russian leader uses the memory of Russia’s brutal struggle in World War II to mobilize the nationalist edges of his base. And were Czech officials to start dying from odd poisoning, Putin would receive far more knowing smiles than raised eyebrows from Russia’s significant nationalist community. Indeed, now facing the most significant challenge of his presidency due to the coronavirus pandemic, Putin might view this escalation as a way to consolidate his nationalist base. While the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, is an effective Putin puppet, the Russian leader has a standing interest in galvanizing LDPR voters so that they ultimately remain loyal to him.
There’s also the EU factor. Namely, Putin’s awareness that the vast majority of EU nations lack the stomach for a showdown with Russia. Consider the pathetic failure of most European NATO allies to support basic deterrent operations, the EU’s laughable dependence on Russian funny money, and the EU’s failure to address recent Russian assassinations on its soil (including a recent Russian assassination in Berlin). All of this would encourage Putin to believe he could kill a few mayors, deny responsibility, bank on a lack of definitive evidence tying the attack to Russia, and then see the EU shove the issue under the carpet.
As an extension, the Czech government is concerned that an appropriately robust response will lead to pushback from Czech Communist Party leader Vojtech Filip, a quiet Kremlin ally. That would be a problem because the minority government relies on Filip to prevent what would otherwise be a losing no confidence vote in Parliament. But others are less ready to be cowed. Jakub Janda, the director of the European Values Center for Security Policy, told me, “Russia has launched the most aggressive bilateral escalation against the Czech Republic in 30 years. The Czech government should expel most of the Russian diplomats from the Czech soil — around half of them perform hostile intelligence tasks. We often serve as a Russian intelligence base against Germany, and that should be stopped right now.”
So, where does this leave us?
Well, predictably, the Russians are playing games. Hence, Konchakov’s rather tall tale to the Czech Seznam Zpravy publication that reports he was carrying ricin “must be a mistake, I carried disinfectant and candies in my suitcase.”
It’s a straight-out-of-the-Russian-intelligence-playbook excuse. Konchakov is basically saying that even if the Czechs or an ally were aware of his carrying strange things (or if strange emanations were detected from his suitcase), those findings can be explained by his candies from home and his disinfectant to protect against the coronavirus. Let’s be clear: This is standard-fare Chekist silliness designed to insult and aggravate the Czech authorities who know better. It also fits pitch-perfect with the operational character of longtime FSB director and ultra-hawk Alexander Bortnikov.
Still, this plot deserves greater attention. Russian assassination plots on NATO member state soil are major acts of aggression. Alliance credibility suffers wherever and whenever such plots are tolerated with a closed or half-turned eye. The least we can do here is gather more evidence.
