What to expect from Trump’s UN speech

Trump is likely to focus on sovereignty and the narrative of national power versus globalism. Frustrated by what he sees as a raw deal of American global leadership, the president will probably affirm that the days of neoconservatism and liberal interventionism are over. Instead, while Trump will almost certainly commit himself to America’s international treaties, he’ll also assert that multilateralism must be fair. Expect Trump to again raise the concern of NATO member states that fail to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. In a play to his base, Trump will also criticize global agreements that do not benefit citizens at the lower end of the economic ladder.

That said, I also think Trump offers a touch of humility alongside calls for U.N. reform. The president is realizing, as with regards to North Korea, that he can accomplish more when he aligns foreign governments in support of U.S. objectives. And with the U.N. General Assembly representing the greatest stage for Trump’s showmanship, expect the president to present himself as the outsider dealmaker who can break deadlocks.

Correspondingly, Trump is likely to again call for action on the Israel-Palestinian peace process. That endeavor is a priority of many U.N. member states and Trump’s energy here has pleasantly surprised foreign governments that otherwise dislike him. He may also say something like, “I seek to advance American interests, while learning from our mistakes,” or addressing extremism online, “You might have noticed that I enjoy social media, so trust me when I say we have a problem …”

Regardless of what he says, the purpose of any humility will be to draw skeptical foreign leaders into a new optimism as to Trump’s amenability to deal. He wants to get past the Paris climate agreement, his rejection of which so upset foreign governments. As such, while Trump will never employ the glad-handing approach of former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama (doing so would weaken the perception of unpredictability that he thrives on), he will throw out a few olive branches.

Still, Trump’s speech won’t be all smiles. Because of the narrowing window for preventing North Korea’s credible intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear warhead capability, Trump will need to reaffirm his commitment to using force should diplomacy fail. He may also threaten tougher action against Chinese financial institutions if more Beijing fails to bring greater pressure on Pyongyang.

In this tougher part of the speech, Trump is likely to touch on the Iran nuclear deal, explaining why Iran’s illicit ballistic missile program is such a significant concern. He will also probably call on foreign leaders to reject terrorist groups and crack down on the networks that support them.

Ultimately, whatever he says, I believe Trump’s speech tomorrow will be more nuanced than many expect.