As voters in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia prepare to go to the polls in Tuesday’s Potomac primary, the Democratic and Republican party establishments face rebellions from within their ranks. The outcome of Tuesday’s balloting across our region may pour fuel on the fires behind both insurgencies.
The Democratic rebellion is led by Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, whose campaign looks increasingly like an unstoppable force. Only a year ago, former first lady Hillary Clinton was the odds-on favorite, thanks in great part to her massive backing from among Democratic officeholders and the leadership echelons of the party’s official campaign institutions.
She also enjoyed what appeared to be deep support across the ranks of the party’s activists in the labor unions and ideologues of identity-based politics.
But Obama’s “change” theme perfectly positioned him in South Carolina for the failure of former President Bill Clinton’s crass attempt to pigeonhole the Illinois senator as the reincarnation of Jesse Jackson. Slick Willie’s tactics inspired revulsion by giving voters a rancid taste of the Clinton team’s White House restoration menu. Obama then battled Hillary Clinton to a dead heat on Super Tuesday. He swept the weekend’s contests in Louisiana, Washington state and Nebraska and looks poised to do well here Tuesday, a result that could create a genuine crisis of confidence in the Clinton camp.
On the GOP side, a record turnout of more than 6,600 for the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Omni Shoreham in Washington, D.C., afforded the party’s clear front-runner, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a unique opportunity to reach out to a group that is critical to his November prospects.
McCain is clearly the Republican establishment’s favorite, but he is deeply distrusted on several counts bymany of the party’s conservative rank and file. Despite the pleadings of such notables as Washington Post columnist George Will at CPAC, suspicion remains that, for example, a President McCain would be as aggressive an advocate of congressional — i.e. incumbent — regulation of political speech via the Federal Election Commission as was Sen. McCain, with dire consequences for the First Amendment. Conservative worries on that score equal or outweigh their horror at the prospect of either a revived Clinton presidency or the ascension of an Obama they view as naïve and inexperienced.
McCain’s march to the GOP nomination almost certainly will not be slowed by Tuesday’s results in Maryland and the District, but Virginia Republicans may bolster former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s recent rededication of his faith in the power of miracles.
