Early in the pandemic, coronavirus lockdowns were supported by two primary arguments. First, the mortality rate of the virus was high enough such that mass infection posed a significant risk to the population on the whole. Second, if infection numbers grew too quickly, our hospitals would be overwhelmed.
At this point, due largely to the vaccines developed during the Trump administration, neither of those concerns holds much water. Despite this, policymakers in the more liberal corners of the U.S. are scrambling to reimpose restrictions on weary Americans.
The much-hyped delta variant of the coronavirus appears to be behind this craze. Talking heads in the liberal media would lead us to believe that the variant could lead to a new public health crisis if left unaddressed. Such sentiments seem to have gained traction with many leaders who now feel it necessary to bring back things like mask mandates.
Neither the experiences of other countries with outbreaks of the delta variant nor what we’ve observed in America thus far can justify these actions.
England, which could be considered the epicenter of the delta variant, has seen no surge in hospitalizations resulting from the new strain. Further, even with restrictions gradually being lifted, COVID-19 case incidence has begun to decline.
Though daily infections have risen dramatically in the U.S. — up roughly 200% in the last month — there has been no corresponding upswing in the number of deaths caused by the virus.
Some may be quick to point out that, at the moment, only select localities are bringing back restrictions and that it is, therefore, unfair to use national data to scrutinize them. Though there is some validity to this criticism, most of the cities angling to bring back mask mandates look a lot like the rest of the country with respect to their COVID-19 numbers – sometimes even being substantially better off.
Washington D.C., for instance, just announced that it would once again be requiring masks indoors as a response to rising case numbers within its borders. Like the rest of the U.S., D.C. is experiencing an uptick in cases. The district, however, has seen just five deaths attributable to COVID-19 in the past 30 days.
If so few people are dying, why the return to pandemic-era hysteria?
The District of Columbia also has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, with 55.6% of the total population already fully vaccinated. This, combined with the district’s comfortingly low coronavirus death rate, should be making a compelling case for fewer restrictions, not more.
Defenders of the resurgent lockdown measures may point out that a surge in cases won’t immediately be followed by a surge in deaths as it takes time for the illness to progress and for the infected to succumb to it. While this can be true, looking to the United Kingdom once again provides insight. Their Delta outbreak, which has been going on longer than our own, has not led to a spike in deaths, instead COVID-19 mortality has plateaued in the isles. Assuming this outcome is generalizable to the United States, we shouldn’t have anything to worry about.
In years past, we didn’t shut down society every flu season. That is because it was generally agreed upon that the risk of mortality associated with the flu was so low that substantially altering the nature of our lives to avoid infection was not worth it. Now that the risk of death carried by a COVID-19 infection is similarly low, we must accept that a mere multiplicity of cases does not on its own justify restrictions.
