The exciting ending to last Sunday’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills may be long gone, but Sunday is back and ready to thrill again. Here are three games you can’t miss and my picks to win.
Last week my picks stumbled, going 1-2 straight up and 1-1 against the spread (with Kyler Murray’s incredible Hail Mary to DeAndre Hopkins causing the first push of the season!). But overall this season, my picks are a solid 19-11 straight up and 17-12 against the spread (with one push).
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3), 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Both of these teams are trending in the wrong direction. After starting 5-1, the Ravens have dropped two of their last three games. The Titans got off to a 5-0 start and promptly lost three of their last four.
The Ravens would be in if the playoffs started before this game, and the Titans would be out. The stakes are high.
It’s no surprise that the quarterback play will be the key determination in who wins and loses this game. Lamar Jackson is nowhere close to his MVP season from a year ago. His leadership has been questioned, and he needs to answer back.
Ryan Tannehill initially silenced his doubters after getting a big contract in the offseason by leading the team to a 5-0 start. Can he steady the ship and get the Titans back in the playoffs and in position to make a deep run like they did last year? Tannehill has been very efficient with the football this season. He has thrown for 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions and while completing just under 65% of his passes.
Tannehill has done a good job of spreading the ball around since five players have at least 22 catches. While Corey Davis leads the team in receptions, A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith are tied for the lead in touchdown catches with six apiece. Derrick Henry, the focal point of the offense, has had a great season with eight rushing touchdowns and is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game, but his great performances haven’t kept the Titans from losing games recently.
The scoring offense for both teams is separated by a mere 0.6 points per game, but the Titans have a more balanced offense. The Ravens, on the other hand, have the NFL’s second-best rushing offense and the next-to-last passing attack. If Baltimore can’t run the ball effectively with Jackson and its stable of backs, the Ravens could have trouble moving the chains.
Jackson has to involve Marquise Brown more in the offense. He’s the team’s fastest receiver and its top deep-threat. He was targeted just twice in the loss to the Steelers and has a mere six catches in Baltimore’s last three games. That’s simply unacceptable.
Two of Tennessee’s recent losses came against the Steelers and Colts. Both teams have elite defenses, but the Ravens have the NFL’s top scoring defense right now. Will the Titans rise to the challenge?
The line: Baltimore Ravens (-6.0)
The pick: I think the Ravens will win, but I like the Titans to keep it uncomfortably close. I’m taking the Ravens and the points.
Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Packers have the league’s third-highest scoring offense, and they’re going up against the Indianapolis Colts and their fourth-ranked scoring defense.
The Packers offense has two very capable backs in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Jones is definitely in the upper tier at the position, but both can run and catch passes out of the backfield. Davante Adams is putting up another monster year with nine touchdown catches and is averaging over 105 receiving yards per game.
Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal as usual. He is completing almost 68% of his passes and has thrown for 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He’ll have his hands full with the Colts defense though.
Indianapolis has the third-best rushing defense and second-best passing defense in the NFL. They give up the fewest yards per play, and no team has given up fewer total yards this season.
Nyheim Hines was critical in helping the Colts beat the Titans last week. He had 12 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, as well as five catches for 45 yards and another score. Ultimately, Philip Rivers and the offense will be tasked with scoring enough points to keep up with the Packers.
Rivers’ numbers this season have been awfully pedestrian. He’s completing just under 69% of his passes and has thrown just 11 touchdown passes along with seven interceptions. T.Y. Hilton, the team’s best receiver, has just 26 catches in his eight games and has yet to reach the endzone.
The middling Colts offense will put a lot of pressure on the Colts defense. Both teams are quite similar in terms of third-down and red zone defense, but the big differentiator is that the Packers have the fourth-best third-down offense and red zone offense.
In a game where points will be at a premium, the Packers will need to continue to punch it in when they get inside the 20. The Colts will have to figure out a way to extend drives and come away with touchdowns instead of field goals if they want to hang with Green Bay.
The line: Indianapolis Colts (-2.0)
The pick: I think the Colts will have a similar issue to the one they had when they faced the Browns and Ravens earlier this season. I’m taking the points and the Packers to win as road underdogs.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3), 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Chiefs head to Vegas to try to get revenge on the only team that has beaten them this season. The Raiders have been awfully impressive this season but have really flown under the radar. Their only losses came against the Patriots, Bills, and Buccaneers, and they have wins against the Saints, Browns, and Chiefs.
Running back Josh Jacobs and tight end Darren Waller are the top two options on the Las Vegas offense. Jacobs is averaging less than four yards per carry on the year but does have eight rushing touchdowns. He’s also averaging six-and-a-half yards when he catches a pass out of the backfield. Waller has been one of the most productive tight ends in football this season. He has four touchdown catches and easily leads the team in catches, targets, and receiving yards.
Derek Carr’s poor 2019 seems like the distant past with how he has played this season. He’s completing over 69% of his passes and has thrown for 16 touchdowns and a mere two interceptions. Head coach Jon Gruden has to be elated with that 8-to-1 ratio.
The Raiders were able to beat the defending Super Bowl champs because they had a fantastic fourth quarter in their game earlier this season while the Chiefs had a subpar one. Now Las Vegas has to get ready to play and execute another sterling four quarters of football.
With a good game on Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes could eclipse 3,000 passing yards on the season. He has already thrown 25 touchdown passes and has only one interception. He’s unflappable and has also managed to be second on the team in rushing yards.
Tight end Travis Kelce leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards and has six touchdowns on the year, a mark surpassed only by speedy receiver Tyreek Hill. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 40 rushing yards and 40 receiving yards in the Chiefs’ first game against the Raiders this season.
The Raiders and Chiefs are the two best teams in football when it comes down to third-down conversions. The Chiefs are at 50%, and the Raiders are at 50.4%. Keeping drives alive will be critical for Las Vegas not only because of scoring chances, but because it will keep Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense off the field.
The one big area the Raiders will look to exploit on offense is the run game. The Raiders have the NFL’s seventh-best rushing attack while the Chiefs have the league’s fourth-worst run defense.
The huge problem for Las Vegas is that it’s 25th when it comes to pass defense. The Chiefs have the league’s top passing offense.
The Chiefs are heavy favorites and should be. The defending champs have the second-best scoring offense in football and the sixth-best scoring defense.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.0)
The pick: Kansas City is motivated, coming off a bye week, and facing a depleted Raiders team. I’ll take the Chiefs to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
