Former President Donald Trump has made it abundantly clear that he has no intention to claim the House speaker’s gavel. If he actually wants to run again for the presidency in 2024, he could seriously reconsider that stance.
As President Joe Biden’s reign draws on, Trump has been slowly losing his grasp on the American collective consciousness. Major media outlets ignore his rallies, influential conservatives have distanced themselves, and Trump’s social media footprint is a fraction of what it once was.
For an individual who relied so heavily on garnering attention, both positive and negative, this descent into relative obscurity could prove fatal to the former president’s political clout.
Becoming the speaker of the House provides an answer to that threat.
The media cannot ignore the de facto leader of the lower chamber given how important the role is to public life. Should he become speaker, Trump would return to dominating the news cycle with his antics. This allows him an opportunity to rekindle an, admittedly damaged, conservative appeal. Trump’s eccentric behavior, and the media’s amplification of it, were significant factors in his rise to prominence after all.
If Trump has 2024 ambitions, which he’s hinted at having recently, such a return to the public eye couldn’t come at a more opportune time. Assuming everything worked out, Trump would assume the role of speaker in January of 2023. This directly coincides with the reinstatement of his Facebook and Instagram accounts and the early stages of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. A Trump that is active on social media and at the center of the federal government will no doubt reenergize a disengaged base. Trump is by no means guaranteed the nomination in 2024. If he wants it, he must exhaust every option at his disposal to maximize his chances of attaining it.
Brand-building aside, the speakership has substantial implications for Trump’s unfinished policy agenda. The speaker has considerable powers that Trump could leverage, among them being a degree of authority over committee assignments. By placing loyalists on influential committees and punishing rivals within the party with poor assignments, Trump could steer the House’s legislative agenda to align with his preferences. He would also benefit from the bully pulpit provided by the position, a tool Trump could use to shape national conversations ahead of the 2024 primary and general elections. Influencing what people are concerned about ahead of elections is, needless to say, a valuable ability to have.
While it may be strategically advantageous for Trump to try for speaker of the House, is it realistic?
For Trump to be elected speaker, Republicans first need to retake the House. Favorable redistricting and historical trends considered, Republicans should be able to smash the slim, six-seat Democratic majority. For reference, the president’s party loses an average of 27 seats during midterm elections.
Trump could plausibly be part of that majority (though that’s not a prerequisite, as the House speaker doesn’t need to be a member of Congress). Given that he resides in Florida, and that the state gained a seat in Congress due to its population growth, Trump could run in an open red district or primary some poor Republican congressman. Once sworn in, Trump would only need the support of 218 house members to become House speaker. If Republicans shore up a sizable majority, this should not be too difficult.
To ensure that he would have the votes to be elected speaker, Trump could campaign in primary contests against House Republicans who have previously been openly hostile to him. For instance, campaigning for Joe Kent and Loren Culp of Washington’s 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts, respectively, could oust two Republicans who voted to impeach him (and thus would not support Trump for speaker) and replace them with explicitly pro-Trump people.
This would put Trump in a better position to regain the White House. It would also make politics entertaining again.
