The first round of the French 2017 presidential elections has finally returned its verdict and, remarkably, the polls showed a certain acuity in successfully forecasting the podium of an unprecedented election.
Emmanuel Macron, a candidate claiming affiliation with neither the Left nor the Right, came in first position with almost 24 percent of the votes, outpacing the leader of the far-Right, Marine Le Pen, who scored 21.7 percent. The right-wing candidate François Fillon came in third with nearly 20 percent. Far-Left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, after a blasting end of campaign, ended in fourth position with 19.5 percent.
At first sight, voters were obviously very open to extreme parties and bored of the old and endless bipartisan fight.
However, the French people expressed their will to be part of this major election. With a participation of nearly 80 percent, this first round gathered around 36 million voters out of 46 million registered. It has to be seen as a sign of good health for France’s democracy. If it does not set a new record, it clearly represents a high rate of participation in a presidential election, just below that of 2012. Much to the displeasure of the candidates who were calling for a new Sixth Republic, the French democratic system is alive and well, and there seems to be an appetite to make it last.
That aside, if the newcomer Macron, current President François Hollande’s former minister of the economy, reached the second round in the best position, it is the unprecedented rise of the extremes parties that stunned the most.
Marine le Pen, from the extreme-Right, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, from the extreme-Left, scored a cumulative 40 percent of votes, and if the “small” Trotskyists and far-leftists’ candidates join their forces, extremes represent almost 45 percent of French voters’ choices. More than 15 million French citizens chose to give their support to parties that at least are extremely reluctant to Europe, anti-capitalistic and for a majority of them have strong links with dictators or authoritarian leaders all around the world.
Voters clearly expressed their sicknesses of the old bipartisan struggle that has been taking place for too long. By all means, their choices underline France’s total lack of flexibility combined with the lack of deep reforms that would have given hope to new generations.
Marine Le Pen ranks first among 18-34-year-olds: red alert. They want to see something else, different, and are able to give a shot to populists that only had to renew their images to appear attractive. As an example, the two top finishers can currently count together on a total of three seats in the National Assembly, out of 577.
Another useful lesson of this election’s first round is the collapse of the Socialist Party, fairly driven by Hollande. If the actual president acknowledged leaving such an enthusiastic record that he declined running again, it was unclear that the socialist tag was so toxic that, Benoit Hamon, the Socialist candidate, would disintegrate completely, gathering only 6 percent of total votes.
The “normal” president Hollande made a 5-year term, leaving the impression of a ghost managing France, the same way he used to with the Socialist Party: all by himself and without real intentions. Strong, with 293 representatives in the National Assembly, the left party is facing a huge challenge in a couple months: to try to survive.
Therein lies Macron’s likely most significant victory. While in Hollande’s administration, he successfully managed not to be poisoned by Hollande and the Socialists’ legacy. A member of the Socialist Party, a banker who has never been elected, enjoyed stars perfectly aligned in one of the most dreadful campaigns in the history of French presidential elections.
Next steps are significant for France and Europe. Early this morning, polls give Macron a strong position in the second round. None saw him winning by less that 60 percent versus 40 percent for Le Pen. But this is an unusual election, and as a tightrope walker Macron has to gather as much support as possible without losing others. He already can count, at the moment, on support from Socialists and moderate right-wing votes, for what they are worth.
The main paradox of this upcoming second round campaign is that it is no longer France alone that is at stake. Macron’s lowest common denominator with his last-hour allies against Le Pen’s populism is Europe. He already set the tone by making it a crucial part of his victory speech, putting French voters in a strange position to elect a president for their country: by choosing between a stronger Europe or Frexit.
Jean de Nicolay is a consultant in lobbying and public affairs. He was a member of several French ministers’ cabinets until 2012. After being involved in Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007 campaign, he joined Francois Fillon’s government as a communication and parliamentary advisor.
If you would like to write an op-ed for the Washington Examiner, please read our guidelines on submissions here.
