The contested convention that could provide conservatives with someone to vote for in November besides Donald Trump is finally here.
It’s just not the Republican National Convention. The Libertarian Party is gathering in Orlando, Fla., over Memorial Day weekend to choose its 2016 presidential nominee. With unpredictable (some might say quirky) party activists and no real primary system, there’s no guarantee what the delegates will decide.
Normally, this is an esoteric event that attracts little serious press coverage. This year is different. First, there remain significant pockets of opposition to Trump among conservatives even as he stands on the precipice of the GOP nomination.
The Libertarians aren’t an ideal third-party vehicle for many of these conservatives. But unlike other #NeverTrump alternatives, it is an established political party that has been around for over 40 years. It has qualified for the ballot in all 50 states. And it has a more than hypothetical set of candidates.
Second, those candidates. Democrats and Republicans may scoff, but this is actually an above-average Libertarian presidential field: former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, famed antivirus software creator John McAfee and former Judge Andrew Napolitano producer Austin Petersen, whose pro-life stand and defense of religious liberty has earned him surprising conservative endorsements.
Johnson received more than 1 million votes in 2012, a record raw vote total for the Libertarian Party (though Ed Clark and David Koch still received a slightly higher percentage in 1980) and is the presumed front-runner this time around. He has named another successful former Republican governor, William Weld of Massachusetts, as his running mate.
The conventional wisdom is that Johnson is best positioned to capitalize on the public’s distaste for its existing choices of Trump and Hillary Clinton. This is supported by three national polls that show the ex-Republican in double digits in a three-way race. Morning Consult and Fox News both recently showed Johnson winning 10 percent of the vote. Monmouth had him at 11 percent in mid-March.
None of this means Johnson is necessarily a shoo-in. The Libertarian Party is often rocked by fights between its pragmatic and radical wings, to an even greater extent than the two major parties. After their relatively successful Clark-Koch ticket in 1980, they followed up four years later by nominating Libertarian activist David Bergland, who won just 0.3 percent of the vote.
Ron Paul barely won its nomination in a bruising 1988 convention fight against Native American activist Russell Means. The party selected obscure software engineer Michael Badnarik in 2004 and then turned to former Congressman Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root in 2008, both former Republicans who are Republicans once more.
So there’s no guarantee the Libertarian Party will succumb to the allure of breaking past popular vote records. It’s also possible, however, that the other candidates or any third option could break into the double digits given the unpopularity of Clinton and Trump with the electorate at large.
The Johnson-Weld ticket doubles down on positions that are arguably more socially liberal than libertarian. Weld advocated gun control and racial preferences in Massachusetts. Johnson has been critical of religious freedom restoration acts, which opponents argue allow anti-gay discrimination. “Johnson went so far as to say he would force a Jewish baker to bake a cake for a Nazi,” former Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate Kurt Evans told the Washington Examiner earlier this month.
Neither Johnson nor Weld are pro-life either. Many #NeverTrump conservatives are. Johnson opposes abortion after fetal viability and worked with pro-life groups in New Mexico on some incremental restrictions as governor. Weld called for deleting the pro-life plank from the national GOP platform during the 1990s and defended ninth-month abortions, although he softened his position somewhat while seeking the Conservative Party ballot line during a short-lived campaign for governor of New York.
On the other hand, Weld was known for being tough on crime while Johnson is not entirely dogmatic about foreign-policy noninterventionism. These conservative selling points, however, will be negatives to many Libertarians.
McAfee is obviously a big name, even if not one usually associated with politics. Petersen is the least well known candidate, but he is popular among small-l libertarian Republican activists as well as Libertarian Party members and on some issues offers a contrast with Johnson-Weld socially libertine politics.
The winner of this unusual race could actually matter in November.
