Guarding against communications intercepts by the British Government Communications Headquarters and the U.S. National Security Agency intelligence services, Russia often uses human couriers to deliver its most sensitive messages.
This bears note in light of the Russian defense minister’s visit to Belarus on Thursday.
Sergei Shoigu’s stated purpose was to review preparations for joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises. Those exercises will begin next Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin returns from the Beijing Winter Olympics. That said, Western security officials fear the exercises might be a cover for a Belarusian invasion front against Ukraine. Shoigu’s visit will raise concerns in Western intelligence circles that he may have delivered marching orders for Russian ground commanders and possibly Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (if Belarus is to join any offensive against Ukraine).
Shoigu need only maintain secrecy until an offensive begins. At that point, Russian forces will rely on encrypted communications.
The disposition of Russian forces in Belarus is striking, extending far beyond troops and armored vehicles. It includes advanced Su-35 fighter jets that could establish rapid air superiority over nearby Kyiv. It includes S-400 air defense systems that could be used to destroy Ukrainian aircraft or hold at-risk NATO surveillance and intelligence flights (which would be used to intercept Russian military communications). And it includes Iskander ballistic missile systems (belying Russia’s claim that it wants to reduce missile deployments on NATO borders) that could target Ukrainian command centers at long range. Put simply, these forces are extremely well-positioned to launch a lightning offensive to Kyiv.
On paper, Shoigu’s trip is a signal to NATO: Frustrated by the alliance’s refusal to disarm its eastern flank unilaterally, Russia wants to keep the alliance off balance. The area Shoigu inspected is right on the Polish border, less than a four-hour drive from Warsaw. British air force signal intelligence flights have been flying close to this border region as they transit to and from Ukraine.
Yet, the most noteworthy element of Shoigu’s visit is what he did before traveling to Brest. Namely, meet with dictator Lukashenko in Minsk. Since Russia assisted Lukashenko in retaining power following his presidential election defeat in August 2020, the former Belarusian strongman has been reborn as Putin’s thinly veiled viceroy. What Ramzan Kadyrov is for Putin in Chechnya, Lukashenko is for Putin in Belarus. Lukashenko knows who is the main boss, and he knows it’s not the man in the mirror.
A very close political ally and personal friend of Putin, Shoigu is a trusted emissary for the Russian president. Lukashenko knows that what Shoigu says can be taken as what Putin says. Now consider what Lukashenko had to say at their meeting.
“Today, unfortunately, the southern direction is opening up in Belarus. It is unavoidable. We have to reinforce the border with Ukraine … Your military specialists will help us define the most sensitive points in this direction in order to create this defense on our southern borders.”
Referencing Ukraine and the West, Lukashenko added, “If they attack, they will get it … The situation is getting aggravated. They are pushing us towards a response.”
Lukashenko thanked Shoigu for Russia’s support and pledged that Belarus “will repay the debt.”
What that debt entails is still unclear. But Lukashenko’s language fits with Russia’s threatened invention of a false flag “maskirovka” attack that offers a pretense for war on Ukraine.
Shoigu’s visit is thus another ominous sign that war may soon be coming.
