The NFL playoffs have finally arrived! Survive and advance, win or go home, Lombardi Trophy or bust.
Although the top two seeds in each conference have the week off to rest, wild card weekend still features exciting matchups. You never know if a team will go bust in the opening playoff weekend or make it to Super Bowl Sunday in Miami.
Here’s my preview and pick to win each game, starting with the first showdown.
No. 5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-6) (Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on ESPN)
The Buffalo Bills are interesting, considering they were competitive in almost every game they played, came close to beating the Ravens, and also came close to beating the Patriots twice. The team averaged just 19.6 points per game, a mark that has it at 23rd in the league in scoring offense. The other playoff teams are all 15th or better when it comes to scoring. Buffalo has relied heavily on its second-ranked scoring defense to win games.
Although quarterback performance is always critical in football, Josh Allen’s performance is the X-factor in this game. This is his first postseason appearance, and the stage has never been bigger. USA Today noted that he has some erratic splits in Buffalo’s wins and losses:
Here are his numbers in Buffalo’s 10 wins: 64.9% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 95.9 QB rating.
Here are his numbers in Buffalo’s six losses: 48.6% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and a 67.8 QB rating.
Allen is a sneaky-good runner. He was eighth in the NFL this season in rushing touchdowns, so he has the ability to hurt teams with his legs. Houston will want to try and keep him contained. Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, who was out for most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, has been activated and could return for this game. He could give Allen trouble while simultaneously giving the fans a huge energy boost.
While the Texans might get Watt back, they’re still dealing with injuries to several key players. Head coach Bill O’Brien opted to sit several players in the regular-season finale such as Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Johnathan Joseph, Bradley Roby, Kenny Stills, Will Fuller V, Benardrick McKinney, and Laremy Tunsil.
Two key stats to look at for Houston: third-down conversion percentage and red zone defense. The Texans converted on 43.5% of their third-down plays. That puts them eighth in the NFL. However, the Bills have the league’s seventh-stingiest third-down defense. Whichever team wins this battle will gain a big edge.
When teams enter the red zone against the Texans, they score touchdowns 71.4% of the time. That’s easily the worst mark in the NFL. If Houston wants to win in the postseason, it’ll have to hold opponents to field goals instead of giving up touchdowns.
The spread: Houston (-3.0)
My pick: The Bills defense should keep them in this game, but I think the return of Watt will help spark the Texans to a narrow win. I’m taking Houston to win, but I doubt they cover the three-point spread.
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) at No. 3 New England Patriots (12-4) (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS)
The Patriots aren’t accustomed to playing on wild card weekend, but they’re still in a good position to make a deep run in the playoffs. On the other sideline, the Titans had a four-game win streak late in the year and then cooled off before beating a Texans squad that was resting a bunch of guys to set up this coaching matchup between New England’s Bill Belichick and Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel, his former star linebacker.
This is Vrabel’s postseason debut as a coach, and it will be Ryan Tannehill’s postseason debut as well. Since relieving Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has been really good for the Titans. In 12 games, he has thrown for 2,742 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions while completing more than 70% of his passes.
Although Tannehill has certainly been good, the Patriots have the greatest quarterback of all-time under center. Tom Brady has not been his usual dominant self this season, but he has still thrown for 4,057 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 60.8% of his throws.
Derrick Henry is my X-factor in this game. He has averaged 5.1 yards per carry this season and is the only player to average more than 100 rushing yards per game en route to leading the NFL in rushing yards with 1,540 and tying for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with 16.
The Pats have been buoyed by their defense for much of the season. They lead the NFL in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and preventing third-down conversions. While the Patriots are in the middle of the pack in terms of yards per rushing attempt allowed, they are sixth in rushing yards allowed per game and have only allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
The Titans’ third-ranked run offense is the driving force behind the league’s 10th-ranked scoring offense, but the real question will be whether Tennessee can consistently get stops on defense and give itself good field position to start its drives.
The Titans face an uphill battle in every sense as they face the defending Super Bowl champions on the road.
The spread: New England (-5.0)
The pick: The Patriots have had eight home playoff games over the last five years, and they have won all eight of them. I’m taking the Pats to win and cover the spread.
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at No. 3 New Orleans Saints (13-3) (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on FOX)
Despite losing Drew Brees for five games early in the season due to a thumb injury, the Saints weathered the storm, winning all five games, and ended up with 13 wins, tied for second-most in the NFL.
The Saints can beat you in multiple ways. Brees has thrown for under 3,000 yards, but he has 27 touchdown passes and just four picks while completing more than 74% of his passes. Michael Thomas led the NFL in catches, targets, receiving yards, and tied for fourth in touchdown catches. He was the only receiver to average more than 100 receiving yards per game. Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combined for more than 1,400 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, while also tallying a combined 115 catches for 768 receiving yards and a pair of scores. While they’re not outstanding when it comes to scoring defense, the Saints do have the third-most sacks in the NFL this season along with the league’s fourth-best run defense in terms of yards allowed per game and sixth-best third-down defense.
Dalvin Cook is my X-factor in this game. He finished the year 10th in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns but missed the final two games of the season with an injury and averaged just three yards per carry over his final four regular-season games. He is critical to the Vikings offense. They’re simply not the same team when he’s not healthy and effective.
The Vikings have the NFL’s fifth best-scoring defense, fifth-most sacks, and second-best red-zone defense. Almost 18% of opponent’s drives against the Vikings ended with a turnover, second-best in the league. This defense is aggressive and creates opportunities.
The Saints have the league’s third best-scoring offense and only turn the ball over on 4% of their drives, the top mark in the league. It’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings defense matches up with the potent Saints offense.
Although the Vikings defense has been big for them all season long, they’ll also likely need a monster performance from Kirk Cousins to win. Cousins’s inconsistency was a major reason why Minnesota didn’t beat a winning team on the road this season.
The spread: New Orleans (-7.5)
The pick: ESPN noted that the Vikings hadn’t won a playoff game on the road since 2004. If you look from 1988 on, the Vikings are 2-11 on the road in the playoffs. In addition to having a big advantage from playing at home, I think the Saints are the better and healthier team. I’m taking them to win and cover.
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) (4:40 p.m. ET on NBC)
The Seahawks came a few inches short in the regular-season finale against the 49ers and now have to travel across the country as a result. But Seattle won seven of its eight road games this season, setting a new franchise record.
Injuries have ravaged both teams. The Seahawks lost left tackle Duane Brown and three running backs, so they brought back Robert Turbin and Marshawn Lynch. ESPN noted that the Eagles finished up a Week 17 win over the Giants without their top three wideouts, their top tight end, their top two running backs,and right tackle Lane Johnson. They also lost Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks for the rest of the season after he dislocated his shoulder.
Seattle’s Russell Wilson, predictably, is my X-factor in the game. Wilson was a serious MVP candidate for much of the year until Lamar Jackson put the race away with his continued brilliance. Wilson has thrown for 4,110 yards and 31 touchdowns with five picks while completing 66.1% of his passes. He’s also averaging 4.6 yards per carry and is third on the team in rushing yards while tying for second in rushing touchdowns. Seattle has the league’s fourth-ranked rushing offense, so I expect that, despite the injuries, it’ll continue to try and pound the ball. Travis Homer was impressive in his debut. It’ll be interesting to see if he can duplicate the efficient outing he had against San Francisco.
NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp listed some stats that speak to the incredible adversity that Philly’s Carson Wentz overcame under center this season, especially with all the injuries the Eagles sustained.
After Seattle beat Philly in Philadelphia in late November, Wentz went 4-1 with very good numbers. He has completed 66% of his throws for 1,509 yards with 10 touchdowns and just one interception. Although Wentz is 0-3 against Seattle in his career and has never won a playoff game, you can’t discount how he managed to lead a depleted Eagles team to four straight wins, all against division opponents, to close out the year and win the NFC East.
A player to keep an eye on is Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert. Because of how vital Zach Ertz is to the Philly offense, Goedert will likely have to have a massive impact in this game if they are going to have a chance to win.
The spread: Seattle (-1.5)
The pick: Wilson and the Seahawks just find ways to win, and I think they’ll do that again on the road. In a matchup of really injured teams, I’m taking Seattle to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
