Hugo Chavez is at it again. Having lost a constitutional referendum last December which would have allowed him to run for president of Venezuela for life, and having been effectively rebuffed in corrupted state and municipal elections last month, Venezuela’s anti-hero is proposing yet another poll in February 2009.
Why the next round of voting? Another attempt to remain Venezuela’s president indefinitely, emulating Chavez’s mentor Fidel Castro.
The December 2007 vote quashed numerous proposed unconstitutional changes, 26 of which Chavez nullified by decree last August. Wisely realizing decreeing himself President for life would be unacceptable to long suffering Venezuelans, he is again using the referendum gambit, this time doing whatever necessary to “win.”
Chavez’s goal of lifetime presidency will be harder to achieve than in Cuba, where little democratic tradition existed before Fidel’s January 1959 coup. Venezuela experienced nearly five decades of democratic government and unprecedented growth prior to Hugo’s ascent, and the taste lingers, becoming stronger with every chaotic day under Chavez.
No matter that the referendum abrogates articles five and 345 of the 2000 constitution personally supervised by President Chavez, whose unconstitutional moves have become a personal art form. The recent November elections clearly abrogated three constitutional requisites: no partisan campaigning by the President; no partisan expenditure of government funds; complete ballot secrecy.
The sooner the voting, the better for Chavez, as economic conditions deteriorate ever more sharply and oil prices continue to fall. Further, there will be less popular interest in politics so soon after Christmas celebrations and the November elections.
Critically important, the newly installed President Obama will have precious little time to act in opposition to the undemocratic and unconstitutional proposal.
And yet, if he is to avoid a Castro-like curse during his presidency, Barack Obama must take meaningful action against the Chavez regime, both prior to the referendum and for as long as Hugo Chavez remains in office. Some realistic action options:
* Privately encourage President Bush to speak against the referendum – with the specific warning that approval would constitute grounds for suspension of diplomatic relations — and strongly support his predecessor’s position himself.
* Reiterate and restate the message as President, 10 days prior to the referendum vote.
* Develop a series of steps designed to exacerbate already major domestic discontent with Chavez, to include:
* Suspending diplomatic relations, if the referendum passes;
* Replacing Venezuelan oil purchases with alternative sources;
* Freezing Venezuelan government assets in the United States — Citgo and other state-owned corporate operations, bank accounts and real estate holdings [except diplomatic facilities];
* Embargoing U.S. citizens’ travel to Venezuela, although allowing foreign nationals to represent U.S. business interests where required.
The foregoing measures would significantly upset the regime while minimally impacting
Venezuelan citizens [as in Cuba, an economic embargo would prove strategically ineffective and hurt individual citizens].
Such measures would signal regional governments that Washington, while not dictating to a sovereign government, will not stand by when a government acts unconstitutionally and anti-democratically against its own citizens.
U.S. leaders have long neglected strengthening relations with our western hemisphere neighbors. Friends should be recognized; enemies – and make no mistake, the Chavez regime is our enemy – should understand we will not accept hostile or illegal behavior.
In tangible terms, this means President Obama should support congressional approval of the Colombian and Panamanian free trade agreements. At the same time, the new President can and should show those who would see the U.S. harmed that such behavior has its price.
It is bad enough that Chavez is making a mess of Venezuela for Venezuelans, but it also hurts Americans. A collapsing Venezuelan economy and society endanger regional peace and freedom. Moreover, the steadily deteriorating Venezuelan oil sector [since 2000, production has slumped 36 percent from 3.6 million barrels daily to less 2.3 million], impacts both the Venezuelan people and U.S. oil companies currently barred from assisting Venezuela in expanding production.
The time is now to help Venezuelans reclaim their democracy and to simultaneously assure Fidel Castro does not have a long term successor in Hugo Chavez.
Geopolitical analyst John R. Thomson recently visited Caracas and reports on conditions in developing countries.
