Donald Trump’s long-awaited first televised TV ad was released on Monday, and it reiterates the Republican presidential front-runner’s best-known and most controversial statements and policy ideas — on the Islamic State, Muslim refugees and immigration.
The ad begins with a narrator saying, “The politicians can pretend it’s something else, but Donald Trump calls it ‘radical Islamic terrorism.'” Actually, the politicians with whom Trump is vying for the Republican nomination all use the same language. But Trump is reminding voters that President Obama and likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton refuse to use the term and thus, according to Trump, fail to understand or acknowledge the true nature of the threat America faces.
Trump’s on solid ground by deploying this line of argument. Several polls have found that most Americans believe the U.S. is at war with radical Islamic terrorism and want a leader who will acknowledge it.
The narrator then says that, as president, Trump will enact a temporary shutdown of Muslims coming into the U.S. “until we can figure out what’s going on.” Give Trump credit for not backing down on his most provocative policy idea, which has been met with overwhelming derision.
But there are many problems with this policy, not least of which is the incredibly vague phrase “until we can figure out what’s going on.” When will that be, the year 2050? Does Trump mean he wants to halt Muslim entry until the U.S. government understands how Muslims are being radicalized? Or does he mean we need to stop Muslim immigration until we can separate the peaceful Muslims from the ones who mean us harm? We don’t know what he means, and we are left wondering whether Trump himself knows what he means.
The narrator next says of Trump, “He’ll quickly cut the head off ISIS and take their oil.” Again, a brash statement with little detail. What would it look like to cut the head off ISIS and how quickly would he do it? He doesn’t say. Perhaps he’ll know after he “figure[s] out what’s going on.”
As far as hitting the Islamic State’s oil infrastructure and taking their oil, it’s not a bad idea. In fact, the U.S. and coalition forces have been doing the first part for more than a year and have stepped up attacks over the past few months. These airstrikes have been shown to disrupt the Islamic State oil supply chain. All that said, while Trump focuses on oil, the Islamic State actually makes as much or more money by looting banks and taxing and kidnapping the people under its control.
Finally, the narrator says that Trump will “stop illegal immigration by building a wall on our Southern border that Mexico will pay for.” This is probably Trump’s best-known policy proposal, and it’s unworkable. For one thing, there is already a wall along one-third of the U.S. border with Mexico, which some evidence shows has been counterproductive. There is evidence that border fences don’t keep migrants out as much as they discourage them from returning home.
Plus, building a wall won’t “stop” illegal immigration, since many illegal immigrants enter the U.S. not by sneaking across the southern border but by overstaying their visas.
And while Trump focuses on Mexicans, illegal immigration from Mexico is actually down. According to Pew data, the number of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. declined by about one million between 2007 and 2012. And since about 2010, more Mexican illegal immigrants have left the U.S. than entered it.
On top of all that, Mexico has been doing more to crack down on illegal immigration from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras through its Southern Border Program. This has led to a significant rise in the number of illegal immigrants from Central America who have been turned back in Mexico.
Airing in Iowa and New Hampshire over the next month, Trump’s ad shows that his campaign is counting on attracting voters by telling them that he is willing to go further than his opponents to keep them safe and make America great again. As soon as he figures out what’s going on.
Daniel Allott is deputy commentary editor for the Washington Examiner
