Eight months ago, the federal government rolled out its strategy to combat the spread of the coronavirus: a temporary shutdown that would last for at least 15 days. It was up to the states to determine just how long this shutdown would last and what kind of restrictions it would require. But in just about every state, 15 days turned into one month, one month turned into three, and in many places, the shutdown was never fully lifted.
Now, some states want to send their citizens back into lockdown as cases rise once again. In Michigan, for example, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer implemented a three-week shutdown that requires high schools, colleges, in-person dining, casinos, movie theaters, and class-based gyms to close their doors. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced a similar order, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker warned that he would issue a mandatory statewide shelter-in-place order if cases in the state continued to rise.
But we now have the benefit of experience. And our experience over the past several months confirms that our healthcare system is well-equipped to handle another surge, that three weeks doesn’t actually mean three weeks, and the phrase “flatten the curve” is short for “this will be over when we say it’s over.” In other words, there is very little trust left to give health officials who changed the timeline on us once before, and there is even less of a willingness to comply with restrictions that arguably do more harm than good.
Already, the number of people following state governments’ recommended guidelines and avoiding public gatherings is down to 45%. In May, that number was 71%. Pandemic fatigue is real, and it has been driven in part by the never-ending nature of these restrictions. People have short attention spans, especially where their rights are concerned, which means it is much less likely that the public complies with another round of business closures and social distancing requirements when there is no end in sight.
If the states were smart, they would approach this shutdown differently. Do not extend the shutdown past its deadline. In Whitmer’s case, three weeks must mean three weeks. Better yet, call off the shutdown before the deadline if hospitalization rates show signs of improvement.
Moreover, every state official needs to begin exerting pressure on Congress to pass additional financial aid. That means Democratic state officials must publicly call out members of their party who killed a coronavirus relief package in the Senate not too long ago. And Republicans must urge their congressional colleagues to compromise and work quickly so that businesses receive the help they need.
But even if our leaders treat this second shutdown with more caution and seriousness, my guess is that public cooperation will be scant. People learned the hard way that politicians and bureaucrats will gladly shift the goal posts with little to no thought about the costs accrued, and several more months of unemployment, academic stagnation, and isolation is simply unsustainable.
Whitmer, Inslee, Pritzker, and the rest seem to think differently. Well, good luck to them.
