As Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis growing exponentially, President Nicolas Maduro has just seized another U.S. factory. But with presidential elections scheduled for this Sunday, Maduro may fight to retain power even if he loses the popular vote. At that point, millions may take to the streets.
The risk of Maduro’s implosion demands that Trump prepare action to protect U.S. citizens in Venezuela. It’s a serious concern for two reasons.
First off, while the short-term increase in oil prices allows Maduro to generate more foreign capital for his regime, his utter failure to invest in oil infrastructure means that he lacks the production capacity to see oil sales save him.
Second, the systemic crisis is unchanged. Medicine, food, and basic household staples are increasingly scarce and the regime’s inner party continues to live it up. At some point, junior or mid-ranking military officers will decide to get ahead of the curve and overthrow Maduro. Yet the socialist kleptocrat has earned the loyalty of senior military officers by grossly inflating the top ranks and throwing hundreds of millions of dollars to line their pockets.
Diego Ocampos sums up the malady by noting that “Venezuela’s economy is likely to contract at least 15 percent in 2018 and inflation will be as high as 8,000 percent. Economic recovery in Venezuela is only possible through its oil sector, which represents 25 percent of GDP, 50 percent of fiscal revenues, and 97% of export revenues. However, oil production has fallen 43 percent since 2015 and currently stands at 1.5 million barrels per day, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).”
Put simply, the ingredients for a civil war are brewing.
What then?
Well, one risk is that the U.S. might become the convenient target for mobilizing Maduro’s devout anti-American base to take to the streets. Like his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, Maduro is possibly insane and obsessed with the notion that American conspiracies abound. If he sensed the end was near, Maduro’s willingness to endanger U.S. citizens would increase exponentially.
Correspondingly, the U.S. should be prepared to deploy a Marine Fleet Anti-Terrorism Security Team to reinforce the embassy on short notice. FAST units are specifically trained for embassy reinforcement and evacuation. Yet lacking air power and armored capabilities, this support alone wouldn’t be enough. In turn, the moment the sparks of civil war are lit, Trump should order a Marine Expeditionary Unit to standby off the coast of Venezuela. MEU’s are equipped with a significant array of strike capabilities including jets, attack helicopters, tanks, and armored vehicles.
While a premature MEU deployment to Venezuelan soil might make matters worse by playing to Maduro’s propaganda of an always imminent American invasion, its lurking presence would give Venezuelan military officers a moment of pause in their deliberations. They would recognize that the U.S. is serious about protecting its citizens and will hold accountable any who jeopardize that protection.
Hopefully Sunday’s election will see Maduro finished and the more-moderate Henri Falcon take his place. But Trump cannot take anything for granted. He must prepare for the worst.
