One of two things is going on in Zimbabwe: the military has either staged a coup to remove President Robert Mugabe from power, or it is flexing its muscles to encourage Mugabe to prevent his wife, Grace, from succeeding him as president.
In either case, this is likely to be good news for the people of Zimbabwe.
But in the short term, everything now depends on how Mugabe and his supporters respond to the military. As I noted in my Monday piece predicting the coup, the Mugabes have played a very idiotic hand up until this point. Rather than placating the military, they escalated by labeling the military chief, Gen. Constantine Chiwenga, “a traitor.”
By extension, if the Mugabes and their supporters (of whom there are millions) choose to fight, things will get bloody.
Thus far, the signs are positive. No significant bloodletting has occurred and the military’s denial that it has overthrown Mugabe suggests it hopes the president will resign and leave the country. Certainly, Mugabe and his family have stolen enough of Zimbabwe’s wealth to live their remaining lives out in extreme comfort.
One complication is what Grace Mugabe decides to do. Robert Mugabe’s younger wife is known for her arrogant, combustible temper, and she may not relinquish power.
That said, I’m optimistic.
First off, China and South Africa are supporting the military by calling for calm rather than condemning the coup. That will add pressure on Mugabe to resign. Incidentally, it’s notable that Gen. Chiwenga has just returned from a trip to China: Perhaps he is acting with Beijing’s blessing? The Chinese have a vested interest in Zimbabwe’s greater stability and economic development: they import Zimbabwean minerals and want to increase their influence across Africa.
Second, the military’s apparent favored candidate to replace Mugabe, former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is regarded as a reformist. A recent Reuters investigation suggests that Mnangagwa would pursue land reforms and endeavor to attract foreign investment if he became president. That would be a welcome change from Mugabe’s ludicrous mismanagement of the economy. Of course, Mnangagwa’s reforms would also need the support of Zimbabwe’s immensely corrupt military.
Still, as I say, I’m optimistic. Robert Mugabe and his family are a lesser version of what Saddam’s Hussein family was in Iraq. Putting narrow identity-politics populism and corruption before the rule of law and economic development, they have imprisoned Zimbabwe in poverty.
It’s tempting to say that things at least couldn’t get any worse than they are now. Unfortunately, in Africa, you can always do much worse; but you can also always do much better.
