On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron told ambassadors that the U.S. can no longer be entrusted with helping keep Europe secure. Macron’s stance, while specifically focusing on European security, makes a broader point about U.S. foreign policy: We have become an unreliable ally.
For the United States, this is bad news.
Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has functioned as essentially the unchallenged dominant force on the world stage. We called the shots, negotiated the deals, led the organizations, and put our interests first. Sure, we didn’t always get what we wanted, but we were a force to be reckoned with.
Now, that unipolar order has shifted. The U.S. is not the only major player — especially as China has rapidly grown and quickly moved to assert itself.
This new alignment, of course, doesn’t have to be bad for the United States. In fact, a more productive and developed world would likely benefit everyone. Trade and development are not, after all, a zero-sum game. The shifting pecking order does, however, mean that the U.S. cannot afford to go it alone. Now, more than ever, strong allies are important — and in order to keep those allies and build new ones, we must be reliable and trustworthy.
Unfortunately, this has not been the case. We have criticized our allies (NATO), undermined the agreements that we brokered (Trans-Pacific Partnership), started punishing trade wars with friendly countries (Mexico, Canada, and the EU), and our president has openly championed an “America first” philosophy. In the short term, those strategies may win temporary political power, but they come at the expense of the nation’s international standing.
For Americans, being seen as an unreliable ally has real consequences.
It means that we are less likely to have favorable trade agreements. That we will lack support in our foreign policy goals. That the alliances meant to keep us safe may not be so willing to come to our defense. That we may have to share or give up authority in international organizations to countries like China. And that it may be us that is cut out of future agreements and deals, leaving us vulnerable to the will of other nations.
These abstract ideas will translate into the real impact of higher consumer prices, less access to opportunities, wars waged alone, less favorable international laws and norms, and even the growing dominance of rival nations.
Already, some of these consequences are playing out. The European Union, along with countries in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and elsewhere are looking to China rather than the U.S. In the process, they are cutting us out of trade deals, investment, and seeking to reorient the international order, undermining our interests. The danger of being an unreliable ally also means that the specter of trade wars, rather than agreements, may not be over anytime soon and, next time, may not be a problem that we created for ourselves.
Being a reliable ally doesn’t mean giving up what’s good for America. On the contrary, the U.S. would benefit greatly from the current order, but risks standing by, needlessly undermining the partnerships that we depend on. Once broken, those partnerships will be difficult and maybe impossible to mend.
