They both faced impossible odds. They’ve both mounted nontraditional campaigns. Now, it looks like both will triumph.
I’m talking, of course, about Donald Trump and Leicester City Football Club.
Those of you who aren’t soccer fans surely just said, “LIE-chester who?”
On Monday, Leicester City sealed the Premier League title. The Premier League is England’s top soccer league and probably the most competitive league in the world. In July, before the 2015-16 season began, Leicester City’s odds of winning the title were 5,000 to one. The same odds of Elvis being found alive. The same odds of the Loch Ness monster being proven to exist. As ESPN reports, the same odds of President Obama playing cricket for England after leaving office.
Trump also faced seemingly long odds in his run for the White House. A year ago, he wasn’t included in many GOP primary polls. When he was, he always got single digits. He had no experience in campaigns or public office and a questionable loyalty to conservative causes, all seen as things working against his candidacy.
But in the summer of 2016, both started their sudden rise. Leicester opened the Premier League season with no losses in their first six matches (there are 38 matches in a season). By November, Leicester led the standings for the first time, with about one-third of the season gone. But no one saw Leicester as the favorite, because traditional powerhouses like Manchester United, Manchester City and (my beloved) Arsenal were right behind. Leicester mostly has the same players from its previous season, when it finished toward the bottom of the league and nearly became one of the three teams that get relegated to the second-tier league at the end of every Premier League season.
Likewise, the 2016 Republican field opened as one of the most-wide open primaries in party history. Seventeen candidates entered the race, with no clear favorite. Trump began to lead polls about a month after he launched his campaign, but few thought that would last. There were too many controversial things he had said about Mexican immigrants, veterans and women. His campaign had little to no ground game and no major endorsements.
But Trump and Leicester have thrived by running with unorthodox tactics. Unlike other teams toward the top of the standings, Leicester rank toward the bottom of the league in ball possession and pass completion. They score with quick counterattacks and a defense that pressures the opposition into poor passes. Leicester have more interceptions than any other team in the league, while the team currently in second-place rank 9th out of 20 in interceptions.
Trump’s campaign has little to no ground game. That’s why Ted Cruz was able to take so many delegates from caucus states this primary season. We kept hearing of instances where there were rooms full of caucus-goers but no one was prepared to speak in favor of Trump. His focus was on earned media: Taking every media opportunity he could get and winning the news cycle as often as possible.
But as much as the title race and GOP race have paralleled each other, in many respects Leicester City and Trump are vastly different.
Trump has been, or at least claims to have been, a winner all his life. Leicester City can make no such claim, having never won the title in England’s top league before in their 132-year history. The ego vs. underdog difference may explain why Trump is viewed unfavorably by almost two-thirds of the nation, but it seems like most soccer fans were hoping Leicester would complete their Cinderella story.
Leicester City, on the other hand, are major rivals to no one. If your favorite team isn’t going to win the league, it might as well be an unbelievable underdog that no one can hate. Really, anyone other than Manchester United, Manchester City or (yuck) Chelsea is fine.
Money represents a stark difference between the two. It’s not often that a presidential candidate has more money to work with than an entire soccer team’s payroll, but that’s the case with Trump and Leicester. Both Trump and Leicester’s owner, Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, are on the Forbes billionaire’s list, but Leicester win on a budget. According to Transfermarkt, Leicester City’s current market value is $144 million. Compare that to defending champion Chelsea, which is valued at $554 million (but having a mediocre season).
Despite their differences, Trump is on the cusp of overcoming long odds to clinch a major prize, just as Leicester did Monday.
Trump only needs to win 241 of the 571 remaining delegates to clinch the GOP nomination. Having won about 50 percent of all GOP delegates to date, he only needs to win 42 percent of the delegates from the remaining states. It’s not possible for him to clinch the nomination until June 7, the final day of primaries, but bettors are confident he can do that: as of Monday on Betfair.com, he has an 87 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination.
But both Trump and Leicester face similarly long odds before they can win the biggest prize in their field.
By finishing in the top four, Leicester City will compete against the best teams in the world in the European Champions League next season. Winning the Premier League is one thing, but beating the likes of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona is another.
If Trump does manage to get the GOP nomination, he’ll likely face one of the biggest, most-polished political machines in history in the general election: The Clinton family. Early predictions are not promising. On average, polls show Trump losing by 8.5 percentage points. Of the 63 times Trump has been polled against Clinton, he has lead in five, and none since mid-February. Bettors give Clinton a 72 percent chance of becoming the next president.
Lightning appears to have struck twice in the same year, with Leicester winning the Premier League and Trump likely to win the GOP nomination. But can it strike two more times in the next 12 months to take both to the next level?
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
