In politics, anything can change in a heartbeat. But sometimes, it takes a bit of time for folks to recognize the better value of a politician. That’s certainly the case with British Prime Minister Theresa May.
Since May narrowly won re-election in June 2017, British political analysts have been flocking in favor to her main opponent, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn’s surprisingly strong performance in 2017, they said, had earned him the momentum. And while Theresa May doesn’t need to call an election until the summer of 2022, analysts were predicting that Labour would be able to force May to call an election around March 29, 2019, when Britain will officially leave the European Union.
That expectation was based on the understanding that May’s Brexit negotiations would be viewed by the public as a failure, and thus that her mandate to govern would require testing at the ballot box. Jeremy Corbyn certainly shared that optimism. Since last year, the avowed socialist has been traveling the U.K. portraying himself as a prime minister in waiting.
But no longer. In recent weeks, the polling data have shuffled conclusively in May’s favor, showing her with a 2-4 percent lead. This marks a trend shift from the polls recorded between last June’s election and the end of January 2018, which showed Corbyn retaining a sustained 2-4 percent lead.
While the polls are still tight, Corbyn needed momentum trending upwards rather than stagnating.
As a Labour man of the 1970s, a believer in big government deficit spending, powerful unions, re-nationalization of state utilities and punitive taxes, Corbyn’s views are on the fringe of modern British politics. But in drawing his strong election result last year and in attracting voters to the message of “me against the establishment,” Corbyn had held out optimism that his time was approaching.
Instead, the more voters have seen him at his best, the less they have come to like him.
Nevertheless, I think there are two functional reasons why Corbyn’s charm is now wearing thin: Namely, the contrast between his own leadership and delivery and that of Theresa May.
On the leadership count, Theresa May’s response to Russia’s poisoning of a former British intelligence agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter has won plaudits from the British people. May has appeared measured but resolute in the face of a barbaric attack on British soil.
Instead, Corbyn has come across as what he is: a dribbling appeaser. The distinction matters because in times of crisis, the British like leaders who exude command of the moment. Corbyn has only seemed capable of commanding a fringe of left-wingers who think Russian President Vladimir Putin can be controlled by Britain surrendering its nuclear deterrent.
Still, May’s momentum over Corbyn hasn’t just sparked forth from her leadership. Her confidence is also rooted in her increasingly successful policy delivery on Brexit. After all, where Corbyn and much of the media have spent the past few months portraying May as a prime minister incapable of delivering a good Brexit deal with the European Union, May has now recorded a steady array of deals with the E.U. Indeed, she has done so while earning the respect of her E.U. counterparts.
This success has led wavering Britons to believe that Brexit might now be successful. And the polls suggest May is being given rightful credit for the hard-won victories she has racked up.
The real irony of all this is that May is now winning by doing that which her election advisers told her not to do in last year’s election. Put simply, she’s doubling down on being a boring but competent leader. And in the end, that’s what voters seem to want right now. They don’t care if a leader is cool or hip or hanging out with celebrities. They want results.
In Theresa May, Britons are getting results. In Jeremy Corbyn, Britons are getting a wet loser.
The polls prove it, and all Americans should be grateful.
