Is French President Emmanuel Macron willing to increase his annual defense budget by $60 billion? If not, he should stop seriously suggesting that France will lead the European Union to a credible strategic defense posture outside of the U.S. orbit.
I note this concern in light of the debate over Europe’s security architecture between Macron and German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. In a recent Politico article and a separate speech this week, Kramp-Karrenbauer, or AKK, as she is known, argued that the United States remains Europe’s indispensable ally. She noted that:
AKK concluded, “The idea of European strategic autonomy goes too far if it nurtures the illusion that we can guarantee security, stability, and prosperity in Europe without NATO and without the USA.”
If this all sounds very sensible, that’s because it is. But responding to AKK’s arguments, Macron hasn’t held back. On Monday, he told Le Grand Continent, “I profoundly disagree [with AKK].” Macron continued, “I think it is a historical misinterpretation … the U.S. will only respect us as allies if we are earnest and if we are sovereign with respect to our defense.”
Both AKK’s and Macron’s arguments are theoretically credible. But only AKK’s has the math on its side.
After all, neither Germany nor France meet the 2% NATO target for defense spending. While Germany spends particularly pathetic sums on defense, Macron’s ambitions can only sustain on the back of massive investments. Dramatic spending increases would be required to achieve his ideal of a distinct European security architecture that is credible against China and Russia and an increasingly crazed Recep Tayyip Erdogan, not just al Qaeda in Mali.
To deter or defeat Russia without U.S. support truly, France needs a vastly strengthened logistics network, many more advanced jet fighters, refueling tankers, airlift transports, and intelligence assets. Considering that most EU nations spend even less than the French on defense both in dollar amount and GDP terms, Macron would have to fill the defense gaps left by other EU states. For context, France has only two armored brigades of the quality necessary to defeat Russian air defense-artillery strongholds (the cornerstones of Vladimir Putin’s war-planning against Europe). The U.S., in contrast, has 16 armored brigades, not including the U.S. Marine Corps, which adds significantly to that complement. Although excellent light infantry forces, the French marines have no heavy-armor units.
As I say, it would be one thing if Macron was willing to put up the funds for his claims. But he does nothing of the sort. On the contrary, ignoring French lawmakers who say that more investment is needed, Macron’s government plans to spend just 49.7 billion euros ($59 billion) on defense next year. That will be less than 2% of the nation’s projected 2021 GDP of about $2.4 trillion. To get anywhere close to making his assertions credible, Macron would have to double his 2021 budget. He doesn’t even intend to meet the basic NATO target! Put simply, the president is not willing to put his money where his mouth is.
Unfortunately, as her foreign minister colleague inadvertently attested this week, AKK is an outlier when it comes to Franco-German expectations from the U.S. alliance. That’s a shame because this alliance is crucial.
