Do not be alarmed by Russia’s announcement of production on a new nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile. While the ICBM, RS-28 Sarmat, will likely be operational within the next few years, it will not change the nuclear strike balance of power in Russia’s favor.

In a nuclear war with Russia, U.S. victory would remain the most likely outcome. That’s primarily because the U.S. has better potential to get more nuclear warheads onto Russian targets than Russia could get onto U.S. targets.