Britons will go to the polls on Dec. 12 to elect a new Parliament. The stakes for Britain, and America, are great. One way or another, this election will decide if and how Brexit takes place.
But what will each possible outcome mean for Brexit? Let’s take the three most likely possibilities in turn.
First, and most likely, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party might win an outright majority. That means winning 326 or more seats in the House of Commons. In this scenario, Johnson would have the mandate and the votes to push through Brexit and see Britain withdraw from the European Union before the end of January 2020.
The second possibility is a Labour Party victory.
While Labour are lagging in the polls and hurt themselves with a muddled Brexit platform, upsets are always possible in British politics. The Conservative Party found this out the hard way in 2017 when, even though the polls suggested she would win a new majority, then-Prime Minister Theresa May lost seats and had to rely on the support of a right-wing Northern Irish party to maintain control in Parliament.
If Labour can portray the Conservatives as out of touch, and if Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn can persuade enough younger voters and first-time voters to get to the polls, he’ll have a shot. If they win, Labour say that they’ll renegotiate a Brexit withdrawal agreement with the European Union and then put that agreement to the British people in a second referendum.
In short, if the Labour Party win a majority, there’s a strong chance that Brexit would be canceled. The European Union is unlikely to grant any more concessions to a future Labour government than those it has already given Johnson. It’s not at all clear that a second referendum would replicate the result of the original June 2016 referendum.
The third possibility is a coalition between the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, and perhaps also the Scottish Nationalist Party. Openly opposed to Brexit, the Liberal Democrats are expected to increase their small seat share in Parliament by appealing to ardent “remain” or pro-EU voters. But the Liberal Democrats have also said they would not serve in a government that has Jeremy Corbyn at its head. If this coalition were to happen, it would be one with a more moderate Labour leader as prime minister. Relying on the Scottish Nationalist Party, the alliance would also almost certainly have to grant authority for a second Scottish independence referendum. Again, this possibility is likely the best hope for voters who want Brexit canceled.
The stakes are great. We’ll just have to wait for Dec. 12 to see the results.
