You say you want a revolution? Well, you know, more specifically retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens wants a constitutional amendment to repeal the Second Amendment.
Impossible at best, that idea is absolutely delusional currently. Eighth grade civics and the briefest, chalk-on-the-floor political analysis conclude as much. But because Stevens has raised the question, it is worth asking how exactly the U.S. would repeal the Second Amendment.
Article V of the Constitution outlines two methods for new amendments. When it comes to editing the right to bear arms out of the Bill of Rights, neither look promising.
Option A: The Congressional Amendment Route
Step 1: Both chambers of Congress adopt a proposed amendment with two-thirds of the body in favor.
Step 2: Three-fourths of state legislatures ratify that proposed amendment.
To get off the ground in the current Congress, that would require 290 votes in the House and 66 votes in the Senate. Assuming Democrats suddenly and uniformly go to war against the Second Amendment (a preposterous idea on its face), they would need 97 House and 19 Senate Republicans to join them. This is impossible and will probably continue to be impossible for some time.
Option B: The State Legislature Route
Step 1: Two-thirds of the states apply for a constitutional convention from Congress.
Step 2: Three-fourth of state legislatures ratify any proposed amendments.
To make a convention of the states happen on this issue would require 33 state legislatures to sign off on signing away the Second Amendment. Using the general election map as a rubric, that means that at least 13 of the red states that voted for Trump would have to join all 20 of the blue states that voted for Clinton.
But Republicans are about as likely to turn their back on the NRA and the 30 percent of the population that owns guns as they are to honor their promise to repeal Obamacare. It won’t happen. Plus, there is no guarantee that, once called, a constitutional convention would deliver the desired result — after all, there is a reason why this option has never been taken.
Even getting blue states on board would be the definition of a long shot. New Hampshire, for instance, might have gone for Clinton but that doesn’t mean they would go for gun control. Republicans control that state legislature and the governor’s mansion.
It seems that only a handful of the most liberal states would even consider calling for a constitutional convention. Maybe coastal states like Connecticut, New Jersey, and California would lead that charge. Even that seems more than unlikely.
Obviously, Stevens understands basic math and the political factions that make the requisite ratifying fractions an impossibility. But conservatives would be foolish to dismiss his call for constitutional experimentation. Stevens is speaking to the next generation, those children-marchers too young to even vote. The Second Amendment will survive Stevens. It might not survive them.
